Iowa State vs BYU Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Oct 9, 2026
No. 10 BYU hosted Iowa State as 10.5-point favorites in a late Friday night Big 12 showdown. Eric's gut pick was BYU.
01The Matchup
No. 10 BYU entered at 3-0 and undefeated, hosting Iowa State in a late-night ESPN window. The Cougars were 10.5-point home favorites with a total of 46.5. BYU had been tested in its first two Big 12 games but found ways to win.
Iowa State came in looking to play spoiler. The Cyclones had enough offense to keep it interesting but needed to avoid the mistakes that had cost them in earlier games.
02The Pick
This was Eric's gut pick: BYU -10.5. The model also leaned BYU, though barely. The Cougars' offensive and defensive efficiency advantages at home were enough to side with the favorite despite the double-digit spread.
This pick is pending final grading.
03Model Lean (Developmental)
Our projection model is in active development. It backtested at 51.1% against the spread on the 2025 season, below our 54% bar.
For this game, the model gave BYU a razor-thin lean. Eric's gut agreed. Pick pending final score.
Eric's gut pick. BYU's efficiency advantages at home. The model gave a thin lean the same way.
Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded after the final whistle. Wins, losses, and pushes all count toward the public record. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.