MODEL 0-0
A PROJECTION MODEL, NOT A HOT TAKE

Read the numbers. Beat the spread.

We built a model that projects NFL and college football spreads, compares them to the market, and publishes only the picks with a real edge. Every result goes on the record.

MODEL RECORD
0-0
all picks, all graded
THIS WEEK
1
model picks live

01Browse by sport

NFL NCAAF NBAsoon MLBsoon NHLsoon

02This week's model picks

NCAAF · WEEK 6Saturday
No. 2 Georgia
5-0
VS
No. 6 Alabama
5-0
SPREAD
Alabama -1.5
MODEL PICK
Alabama -1.5
-0.2 pts vs market

03How the model works

Full methodology →
01
Power ratings

Every team rated from game results, regressed to the mean, adjusted for strength of schedule.

02
Situational edges

Team-specific home field, injuries, rest, and weather layered onto the raw projection.

03
Only real edges

A pick publishes only when the model differs from the market by 2+ points. No filler.