Mississippi State vs LSU Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 7
No. 16 Mississippi State visits No. 22 LSU in an SEC shootout. Both teams throw for over 300 yards a game, and the total sits at 58.5.
01The Matchup
No. 16 Mississippi State in the AP Top 25 walks into Tiger Stadium at noon to face No. 22 LSU, and if you love offense, clear your schedule. These are mirror-image passing machines: Mississippi State throws for 309.2 yards per game, LSU throws for 311.2. The Bulldogs are 4-1 scoring 39.0 points per game; the Tigers are 4-2 scoring 42.0. The total sits at 58.5, which tells you the market expects both teams in the 30s. What separates them is everything around the passing game. LSU pairs its air attack with a genuine ground game (213.7 rushing yards per game at 4.7 per carry) and a defense allowing just 18.5 points per game. Mississippi State's run game is decent (177.8 yards) but their defense allows 28.0 points per game, nearly 10 more than LSU's. The Tigers are also playing with desperation after last week's 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky dropped them 12 spots in the AP Top 25, while Mississippi State climbed to No. 16 during its open week. Desperation at home in Baton Rouge is a powerful thing, but 11.5 points of it is a lot to ask in a game both teams will score in.
02Key Factors
First, the shootout math. When both teams throw for over 300 yards and the total is 58.5, possessions are plentiful and scoring comes in bunches on both sides. Double-digit favorites in shootouts are fragile: one Mississippi State touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, entirely plausible for a 39.0-point offense, erases a huge chunk of the margin. LSU needs to win the game twice over to cover 11.5. Second, LSU's balance is the real edge, not the passing yards. Both teams throw it, but LSU's 213.7 rushing yards at 4.7 per carry lets the Tigers control tempo, convert short yardage, and finish drives, while Mississippi State's defense (28.0 allowed) has shown it cannot get stops against good offenses. Third, the situational spot cuts both ways. LSU at home after an embarrassing overtime loss is the classic bounce-back, and Tiger Stadium at noon will be loud. But Mississippi State is rested off an open week, ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25, and playing with house money on the road. Rested underdogs with elite passing games (65.7% completions) are dangerous.
03The Pick
Take Mississippi State +11.5. Our numbers project LSU by about 9 points, roughly 37-27, which lands just under the number. The logic is the shootout: when two teams combine for 620 passing yards per game and the total is 58.5, the underdog's offense (39.0 points per game, 309.2 passing yards) will score enough to stay within two scores. LSU is the better team - the 213.7-yard ground game and 18.5-point defense are real advantages - but 11.5 points requires LSU to dominate all four quarters, and Mississippi State's passing attack guarantees at least three or four scoring drives. In track meets, take the points. Mississippi State +11.5.
Both teams throw for 300+ YPG; in a projected shootout (58.5 total), 11.5 points is too many to lay.
Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded after the final whistle. Wins, losses, and pushes all count toward the public record. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.