Dallas Stars vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Dallas Stars (3-3-1) visits Chicago Blackhawks (3-5-0) on Saturday. Our data-driven pick: Dallas Stars -1.5.

01The Matchup

Dallas brings the stingiest defense on Saturday's slate to the United Center, allowing 1.71 goals per game, and pairs it with the slate's quietest offense at 2.14 scored, for a plus-0.43 differential across a 3-3-1 start. Chicago is 3-5-0, scoring 2.62 and allowing 4.00 for a minus-1.38 differential, outshot 21.8 to 30.4 on a nightly basis. The styles could hardly clash more cleanly: Dallas strangles games and wins them 2-1, Chicago opens games up and loses the exchange. For a puck line, that clash is everything, because the Stars' path to winning by two runs directly through the Blackhawks' habit of allowing four, not through Dallas suddenly becoming a high-scoring team.

02Key Factors

First, Chicago's defensive volume problem: 30.4 shots allowed and 4.00 goals against per game, against a Dallas team that, for all its offensive restraint, still generates 24.6 shots and allows only 23.1. Even a modest Dallas shooting night projects to multiple goals in this building. Second, faceoffs are a rout on paper, 56.0 percent for Dallas against 44.2 percent for Chicago, the widest dot gap on the slate, which lets the Stars dictate matchups and kill clock with the lead. Third, special teams favor Dallas where it matters most defensively: an 87.5 percent penalty kill against Chicago's 15.0 percent power play, while Dallas's weak 12.5 percent power play faces a beatable 73.9 percent Chicago kill.

03The Pick

Dallas minus-1.5 at plus-136. The differential gap is minus-1.80, and the bet is really a bet against Chicago's defense (4.00 allowed, 30.4 shots allowed, 73.9 percent kill) rather than a bet on Dallas's offense, which at 2.14 goals per game is the obvious risk: a team that scores twice a night loses a lot of puck lines 2-1. The counterweight is that Chicago has been the opponent that fixes quiet offenses, and Dallas's 1.71 goals against with an 87.5 percent kill gives the Stars the widest margin for error on the slate if they do score three. Add the 56.0 to 44.2 faceoff edge for protecting a lead late, and the plus price is justified. Stars minus-1.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.