Arizona Wildcats vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2
No. 10 UCLA has opened with wins by 20 and 36 points at Pauley Pavilion, and Arizona arrives in Los Angeles already owning a 15-point win over Stanford on a neutral floor in Las Vegas. The Bruins are favored by 24.5 against the best visitor their young schedule has seen.
The Matchup
UCLA is 2-0 and has barely been inconvenienced. The Bruins beat Lehigh 73-53 and UC Irvine 78-42 at Pauley Pavilion, scoring 75.5 points per game and allowing 47.5. Sienna Betts scored 15 against Lehigh and 17 against UC Irvine, Elina Aarnisalo has scored 23 points with 9 assists across the two games, and Donovyn Hunter has scored 20 with 9 assists. Betts, Aarnisalo and Hunter carry no injury designations for Thursday.
Arizona is 2-0 with the more interesting resume. The Wildcats opened by beating Stanford 84-69 on a neutral floor in Las Vegas, a 15-point win over a power-conference team away from home, then beat Iona 74-61 at home, scoring 79.0 points per game and allowing 65.0. Breanna Williams scored 23 points with 9 rebounds against Stanford and 12 more against Iona, Sumayah Sugapong has scored 23 points with 7 steals, and Jasleen Green has scored 11 in both games. Williams, Sugapong and Green carry no injury designations for Thursday.
Last season, these programs lived in different worlds. UCLA went 37-1, scoring 83.9 points per game and allowing 56.4, while Arizona went 12-18, scoring 69.8 and allowing 71.2. The new season has narrowed the story in two specific ways: Arizona's defense and frontcourt, behind Williams, held Stanford to 69 in Las Vegas, and UCLA's offense has opened at 75.5 points per game, well under last season's 83.9, against Lehigh and UC Irvine. The Bruins may get there by December. They have not been there yet.
Key Factors
Arizona's Stanford win is the fact this spread has to argue with. The Wildcats did not steal that game late; they won it by 15 on a neutral floor, with Williams controlling the frontcourt and Sugapong's pressure producing steals. A team that has already done that once does not walk into Pauley Pavilion hoping to survive. It walks in with a plan that worked.
The second factor is UCLA's own margins. The Bruins beat Lehigh by 20 at home, inside tonight's number, and their scoring has come in bursts rather than waves. Arizona's defense, 65.0 allowed per game with the Stanford win in Las Vegas inside it, is a clear step up from Lehigh and UC Irvine, and a slower, lower UCLA night is exactly what a 24.5-point underdog needs.
The counterpoint is UCLA's defense and Betts. The Bruins have allowed 47.5 points per game, Betts is a matchup Arizona's frontcourt has not seen, and if UCLA's offense finds last season's level for one night, 83.9 points per game with this defense covers almost any number. Pauley Pavilion on a Thursday night, with the students in full voice, has buried better visitors than Arizona. The bet is that a visitor already proven away from home and a not-quite-clicking favorite keep this in the teens.
Arizona has already beaten a power-conference team by 15 away from home this month, on a neutral floor in Las Vegas, and UCLA's offense has not found its top gear yet. The Bruins should win at Pauley, but the Wildcats are built to hang around, and this spread leaves no room for a slow UCLA start. Take the points with Arizona Wildcats +24.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/12) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 9:30 PM CT |
| How to Watch | BTN |
| Venue | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles |
| Spread | UCLA Bruins -24.5 |
| Total | 140.5 |
| Moneyline | UCLA Bruins -8,000 |
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