Boise State vs Washington State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

AP No. 21 Boise State lays 12.5 in Pullman behind a rushing attack at 234.5 yards per game. Washington State is 1-6 but has played its home schedule close all season.

01The Matchup

AP No. 21 Boise State in the AP Top 25 travels to Pullman with one of the nation's most run-heavy profiles: 234.5 rushing yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry, 35.0 points per game scored and a quarterback, Maddux Madsen, who has not thrown an interception all season. Running back Dylan Riley, who led the Broncos in both rushing and receiving in their last game, is the engine of an offense that has given the ball away only 3 times.

Washington State is 1-6, scores 20.1 points per game and allows 27.1, with quarterback Owen Eshelman leading the Cougars in both passing and rushing last week, which tells you plenty about an offense searching for answers. On paper this is the mismatch of the week. The counterevidence is the venue and the calendar: Martin Stadium at night, a regional rival visiting, and a Boise State team whose style produces long, low-possession games rather than track meets.

02Key Factors

First, Boise State's ball security is the favorite's best cover tool: zero interceptions thrown and 3 giveaways mean Washington State, with only 3 defensive interceptions and 8 sacks, has almost no path to the short fields an underdog this big needs. Second, the Cougars' offense is the problem that will not go away.

At 20.1 points per game, 5.5 yards per pass attempt and 12 giveaways, Washington State struggles to finish drives, and Boise State's defense, allowing 22.3 points per game, is solid rather than spectacular - which is why the Broncos' margin tends to land in the teens rather than the 20s. Third, pace caps the favorite: a team rushing for 234.5 yards per game burns clock on itself, shortening the game and shrinking the number of possessions available to build a 13-point margin. Boise State should control this game from the second quarter on; the question is only the final distance.

03The Pick

Take Washington State +12.5. Our numbers project Boise State by 7, with a projected score of Boise State 29, Washington State 22. This is a number play, not a scouting report on the Cougars, who are plainly the weaker team and may not win another game for a while.

Boise State's run-first, mistake-free style is built to win games, not to cover big road numbers: it shortens contests, protects leads instead of extending them and rarely gives a home underdog the possessions it needs to collapse. In Pullman, against a rival, Washington State needs to reach the low 20s to be live for this cover, and its home performances suggest it can. The Broncos leave 6-1; the Cougars stay inside two touchdowns.

One more game on the board: our thoughts on who covers in Vanderbilt vs Kentucky.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.