Central Arkansas Bears vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Ty Robinson scored 29 in Central Arkansas' opener. Ole Miss put 99 on the board in its. Oxford gets a visitor that can score and a host that expects to roll.

The Matchup

Central Arkansas visits Ole Miss on Friday night at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss in Oxford, on SECN+, with Ole Miss a 19.5-point favorite and a total of 150.5. Both teams are 1-0 after lopsided opening wins.

Last season Central Arkansas finished 22-12, scoring 80.9 points a game and allowing 74.7. Ole Miss finished 15-20, scoring 75.9 and allowing 76.1. The longer view, one game in, is still last season's. The profile still deserves a pause: the road underdog won 22 games and outscored the SEC favorite last season, and it is catching nearly 20 points for the trip.

The openers were both routs. Central Arkansas beat Oral Roberts 85-55, holding the Golden Eagles to 30 percent shooting. Ole Miss beat Alcorn State 99-58, shooting 57 percent with 25 assists. Neither team has faced a test yet. Friday is the first one for both, and the number assumes the test goes much worse for the visitor than the host.

Key Factors

Ty Robinson is the reason Central Arkansas can hang around in an SEC building. Robinson scored 29 points against Oral Roberts on 8-of-11 shooting, going 4-of-5 from three and 9-of-10 at the line, with 4 steals for good measure.

Harry Beauchamp added 15 points, and the Bears made 13 three-pointers as a team. A road underdog with one scorer playing at that level, plus real shooting around him, has an answer for the favorite's runs. Every Robinson spurt resets the margin clock, and Ole Miss has to guard him honestly for 40 minutes.

Ole Miss' own profile is the quiet concern. The Rebels had a losing record last season and allowed 76.1 points a game, and even in their opener, Alcorn State guard Calvin Sirmans III scored 20 points on 6-of-8 shooting against them. Good opposing guards get theirs against this defense.

Robinson is better than the guard who just did it, and Central Arkansas defends well enough to make Ole Miss work: the Bears held Oral Roberts to 18-of-60 shooting and forced 18 turnovers. A favorite that has to work for its points, against a visitor that can score in bunches, struggles to build 20 points of separation.

The counterpoint is Ole Miss' depth, which is real and was on full display Monday. Adam Clark scored 17 points with 7 assists, Patton Pinkins added 16, Santiago Trouet put up 15 points with 7 rebounds and 5 assists, and Christian Brown scored 12 in 10 minutes off the bench.

If the Rebels' second unit stretches the lead while Robinson rests, Central Arkansas runs out of answers, and SEC size at home usually tells late. The bet is that a 22-win team with the best scorer on the floor does not get run off it, and that Ole Miss' margin stays in the teens where its defense usually lives.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.