Chattanooga Mocs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Penn State scored 60 points in the paint in its opener and got 28 off its bench, while Chattanooga turned the ball over 18 times at Louisville. That is a bad matchup for a road underdog.

The Matchup

Chattanooga visits Penn State on Thursday evening at the Bryce Jordan Center, with Penn State a 15.5-point favorite, a total of 159.5, on BTN. Penn State finished 12-20 last season, scoring 70.4 points a game and allowing 84.3. Chattanooga finished 13-19, scoring 75.5 and allowing 77.4. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Penn State's opener was a statement about the paint. The Nittany Lions beat Canisius 97-57, scoring 60 points in the paint and grabbing 45 rebounds. Roko Prkacin came off the bench to score 28 points on 12-of-14 shooting in 20 minutes, and Ivan Juric scored 14 with 15 rebounds in the same 20 minutes. That is a frontcourt wave most mid-major teams cannot answer twice in one night.

Chattanooga's opener was harder and, in one way, more useful. The Mocs lost 84-70 at Louisville, a real road test, and Yonatan Levy and Zach Bleshoy scored 14 apiece. But the Mocs committed 18 turnovers and scored only 26 points in the paint while taking 33 three-pointers. Against Louisville's pressure, Chattanooga's offense lived on the perimeter because it had to.

Key Factors

Turnovers decide this game. Levy, Chattanooga's co-leading scorer at Louisville, gave the ball away 5 times himself, and Penn State just turned its opener into 21 points off turnovers with 10 steals. A road team that coughs it up and cannot score inside hands the favorite short courts and easy runs, which is how a 15.5-point spread gets covered before the final minutes matter.

Penn State's weakness is real, though. The Nittany Lions shot 4-of-19 from three against Canisius, and last season's team allowed 84.3 points a game, the worst defensive number in this matchup by a distance. Chattanooga made 12 threes at Louisville and grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, so if the Mocs shoot it well again, they can trade their way into the last ten minutes.

The counterpoint is the shooting luck running the other way. If Chattanooga's threes dry up on the road and Penn State's frontcourt keeps finishing like Prkacin and Juric did on Monday, the Mocs have no second way to score. Penn State does not need to shoot well from deep to cover this. It needs its size, its pressure, and Chattanooga's ball handling to look the way they looked in the openers.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.