Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Colorado Avalanche (5-2-1) visits New Jersey Devils (4-4-0) on Tuesday. Our data-driven pick: Colorado Avalanche -1.5.

01The Matchup

New Jersey generates more shots than almost anyone and finishes like a team stuck in the middle of the pack, and that tension defines this game. The Devils are 4-4-0, scoring 3.12 and allowing 3.38 per game for a -0.25 differential, while attempting 35.0 shots per game, the highest rate on the Tuesday board.

Colorado is 5-2-1 with the profile of a contender: 4.50 goals for and 2.88 against per game for a +1.62 differential, on 30.8 shots for and 26.0 against. The Avalanche score a goal and a half more per night than New Jersey on five fewer shots, which is a finishing and talent gap, not a volume gap. The Devils' path is to turn their shot flood into actual pressure; Colorado's path is to survive the volume and punish the spaces it leaves.

02Key Factors

First, New Jersey's penalty kill is the weakest unit in this game at 69.6 percent, and it faces a Colorado power play converting 20.7 percent. A kill failing three times in ten is how a road favorite builds the two-goal margin a puck line needs.

Second, shot quality against shot volume: New Jersey allows only 25.0 shots per game but concedes 3.38 goals, so the shots it does allow are dangerous ones, which is exactly what a 4.50-goal Colorado offense produces. Third, Colorado's own kill (85.0 percent) against New Jersey's 20.7 percent power play is close to a wash, and faceoffs are nearly even (49.9 for Colorado, 49.7 for New Jersey), so the Devils get no hidden edge at the dot to offset the scoring gap.

03The Pick

Colorado Avalanche -1.5. The differential gap is -1.87 in Colorado's favor, well past the puck-line threshold, built on a 4.50-to-3.12 scoring edge and a defense allowing 2.88 against New Jersey's 3.38. One pricing note, stated plainly: the DraftKings feed for this game lists New Jersey -1.5 and Colorado +1.5 as its puck-line pair and does not post a Colorado -1.5 price, so this pick is staged without a puck-line price rather than with an invented one; Colorado's moneyline is -115.

The risk is New Jersey's volume: 35.0 shots per game can tilt any single night, and the Devils are 3-2-0 at home. But a 69.6 percent penalty kill and a defense conceding 3.38 per game on only 25.0 shots allowed is a fragile profile against the best offense on the board. Avalanche minus-1.5.

Before you go, take a look at our pick for Minnesota Wild vs Edmonton Oilers.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.