Crvena Zvezda vs Olympiacos Piraeus Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Round 10

Olympiacos sit at 7-2 and keep finding ways to win, but they are doing it without their starting backcourt punch. Crvena Zvezda arrive in Athens at 6-3 behind the stingiest defense in the league, fresh off hanging 103 points on Bayern and 100 on Maccabi in the same week. First place is not on the line. Six points might be too many anyway.

The Matchup

The brotherhood derby rarely lacks warmth between the two sets of fans, but the basketball on Friday is a genuine clash of the table's top end. Olympiacos are 7-2 and sharing the top spot, and Crvena Zvezda are 6-3 in third, and both spent the double round week winning. Zvezda did it louder. They beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 100-78 and then Bayern Munich 103-73 in Belgrade, an average of 101.5 points across the two games, and the Bayern game was settled by halftime at 48-31.

The Bayern rout showed how broad this Zvezda team has become. Chima Moneke led them with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists for a game-high performance index rating of 29. Tyson Carter and Jordan Nwora scored 14 points each, Semi Ojeleye added 12, and six Zvezda players reached double figures while all twelve on the roster scored. This is not a one-man offense that a good home defense can load up on. It is a rotation scoring in turns, which is exactly how a visiting team survives a loud building.

Olympiacos keep winning a different way, on depth and nerve. They won both games last week while losing key players along the way, and Sasha Vezenkov remains the headliner, the reigning league MVP fronting a side that scores 87.8 points per game. What they have not had is a settled backcourt, and that is where this game tightens. A home favorite that has to manufacture guard creation on the night is a different proposition from the 7-2 record on its own.

Key Factors

The number that shapes this pick is Zvezda's defense, because it is the best in the league and it does not depend on the building. Zvezda allow 75.9 points per game on the official full-season cut, the stingiest mark in the competition, against an Olympiacos side allowing 82.1.

Christian Koloko has sharpened it further since arriving last month. Against Bayern he scored 12 points and blocked 5 shots in under 14 minutes, all five blocks in the first half, and the league's own Round 10 preview singled out that rim protection as a headline of Zvezda's week.

Availability cuts both ways, and the honest read starts with the visitors. Johnathan Motley is out on Friday. He was left in Belgrade by coach Ibon Navarro as a coach's decision, not an injury, per Eurohoops on November 5, and Koloko is in the team in his place. Motley scored 2 points in 14 minutes against Bayern, so the loss is depth rather than production, and Zvezda's other listed absence, Stefan Miljenovic, is a fringe guard.

Olympiacos carry the heavier list. Jean Montero is out. He has been ruled out for six months following knee surgery and last played in Round 6. Tyler Dorsey is out as well, suspended by the club after last playing in Round 5.

Evan Fournier is the swing name. He last played in Round 6 and missed three straight rounds with shoulder and knee problems, and coach Georgios Bartzokas has said the plan is for him to play on Friday. Keep an eye on whether Evan Fournier plays before placing a bet. Nikola Milutinov is available again after returning in Round 9, and new signing John Konchar has been registered and could debut.

The setting is unusual for this fixture. Olympiacos are playing this season's home games at Sunel Arena in Athens while the Peace and Friendship Stadium is renovated, so the derby loses a little of its usual cauldron, and Zvezda have won three of the last four meetings between these teams.

Zvezda also make the shorter emotional trip here: one flight from Belgrade, a week removed from their last EuroLeague game, against hosts playing their third competition in a stretched rotation. Olympiacos should win this game. Winning it by more than two possessions against this defense is the harder ask.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.