Delaware State Hornets vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Delaware State scored 86 points behind three hot guards in its opener. Navy scored 39 at George Washington, and its home opener is suddenly a test of how real that collapse was.

The Matchup

Delaware State visits Navy on Thursday night at Alumni Hall in Annapolis, with Navy a 9.5-point favorite, a total of 137.5, on ESPN+. On last season's evidence this line makes sense. On this season's only evidence, it looks a week old.

Last season Navy finished 26-8, scoring 74.6 points a game and allowing 64.3, one of the best mid-major seasons in the region. Delaware State finished 8-23, scoring 61.2 and allowing 70.5. Then came opening night. Delaware State beat Saint Vincent 86-52 behind three guards who all shot it well. Navy lost 91-39 at George Washington and scored 39 points in a Division I game. One night does not repeal a 26-win season, but it cannot be ignored when the favorite is laying 9.5.

Key Factors

Delaware State's guards are the story of its opener. Nehemiah Reedus scored 19 points on 8-of-10 shooting with 4 steals, Nasir Muhammad scored 18 on 7-of-11 with 4 three-pointers, and Isaiah Sullivan added 16.

Saint Vincent is a lower-division opponent, and that discount applies to all of it, but shot-making against a packed gym is still shot-making, and the Hornets defended their way into easy baskets all night. A visiting underdog with three guards who can score does not need the game to go perfectly. It needs possessions.

Navy's opener was a collapse in every direction. The Midshipmen scored 39 points, and their backcourt unraveled: Jinwoo Kim scored 2 points on 1-of-11 shooting, and Cam Cole committed 7 turnovers. David Burnett's 11 points and 7 rebounds were the only line that looked like last season's Navy. Service academy teams usually win with discipline and defense, and 7 turnovers from one guard is the opposite of the identity Navy needs to lay a big number.

The counterpoint is Navy's program, and it is a strong one. Twenty-six wins and 64.3 points allowed do not happen by accident, this is the Midshipmen's home opener, and a proud team that got embarrassed on opening night usually responds with its best defensive effort of the month.

Delaware State also has to prove its shooting survives real resistance after scoring 61.2 a game last season. If Navy's defense shows up in Annapolis, the Hornets' opener will look like a mirage. The bet is that 9.5 points is too many to lay for a team that just scored 39, against a visitor whose guards are warm.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.