Denver Pioneers vs UC Riverside Highlanders Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Carson Johnson scored 27 of Denver's 68 points at Wisconsin, and now the Pioneers visit a UC Riverside team that put five players in double figures in its opener at the SRC Arena.

The Matchup

UC Riverside opened its season by scoring 110 points and allowing 47 against La Verne at the SRC Arena, and the balance behind that line is what Denver runs into on Saturday night. Tony Duckett scored 21 points on 8 of 10 shooting with 3 threes and 4 assists, Tyus Parrish-Tillman added 15 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks, and Devon Malcolm finished with 13 points and 8 rebounds.

Five Highlanders reached double figures, which matters more than the final margin, because Denver just watched one player carry almost its entire offense. Denver lost 75 to 68 at Wisconsin in its opener, and Carson Johnson was the offense, scoring 27 points on 9 of 17 shooting while playing 36 minutes and going 7 of 7 at the line. No other Pioneer scored more than 9 points. That split defines this game.

Riverside can spread its scoring across Duckett, Parrish-Tillman, Malcolm and James Evans Jr., who scored 12 points against La Verne, while Denver needs Johnson to produce another huge night on the road just to keep pace. The season numbers need honest context from both sides. Riverside's 110 points scored and 47 allowed this season came at home against La Verne, and last season the Highlanders finished 10-22 in the Big West while scoring 72.9 points per game and allowing 77.9.

Denver's 68 scored and 75 allowed this season came in a far harder building at Wisconsin, and last season the Pioneers scored 82.8 per game and allowed 82.8 while finishing 15-17. Neither opener tells the whole story, but Riverside's depth is a fact from this week, not a hope carried over from last year.

Key Factors

The scoring load is the first problem for Denver. Johnson took 17 shots and scored 27 of Denver's 68 points at Wisconsin, and the Pioneers' next best total was 9 points, shared by Kam Martin and Jordan Rogers. If Riverside can make Johnson work for his points without sending him to the line, where he went 7 of 7 in the opener, Denver has no proven second option yet. Riverside does not have that problem.

Duckett, Parrish-Tillman and Malcolm combined for 49 points against La Verne, and Evans and Dallas Washington, who scored 11 points, gave the Highlanders scoring from every spot in the rotation. The second factor is the glass and the rim. Parrish-Tillman grabbed 9 rebounds and blocked 3 shots in 20 minutes, and Malcolm added 8 rebounds with 2 blocks, so Denver's drivers will meet length at the rim all night.

Denver allowed 75 points at Wisconsin, and a defense that could not slow the Badgers now has to chase a home team that just shot its way to 110. The posted total is 154.5, and the two openers point in opposite directions, with Riverside playing a game that produced 157 total points and Denver one that produced 143.

The honest counterpoint is that Riverside's opener says almost nothing about its defense against a real schedule, and last season this team won 10 games and allowed 77.9 per night. If Johnson gets early help, a short spread like this can flip late. But at home, with five scorers already in rhythm, Riverside simply has more ways to win this game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.