East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

NC State beat Campbell behind a perfect shooting double double from Ven-Allen Lubin, and East Tennessee State heads to Raleigh after BJ Ward scored 25 at Arizona State.

The Matchup

NC State is 1-0 after beating Campbell 83-64. East Tennessee State is 0-1 after losing 75-65 at Arizona State. Last season NC State scored 83.2 points per game and allowed 76.3, while East Tennessee State scored 77.6 and allowed 69.3 on the way to 23 wins. The baselines describe opposite problems: NC State scored 83.2 a game and allowed 76.3, East Tennessee State scored 77.6 and allowed a stingy 69.3, and the 23-win season behind that defense is why this is no simple step up in class.

Ward gives East Tennessee State a real road scorer. He had 25 points against Arizona State, Trevor Hennig added 15 points, and Jayden Cooper scored 10 points, so the Buccaneers were not overmatched in a power conference gym. NC State's opener was cleaner. Ven-Allen Lubin scored 20 points with 10 rebounds on 8 of 8 shooting against Campbell, Darius Adams added 16 points, and Christian Hammond had 14 points with 6 assists.

The Lenovo Center in Raleigh will be loud for NC State's second home game. East Tennessee State has already played in that kind of building this week, which takes some of the shock out of the trip.

Key Factors

East Tennessee State's defense is its calling card. The Buccaneers allowed 69.3 points per game last season, the best defensive number in this matchup, and held Arizona State to 75 on the road. A team that defends like that does not need to win a shootout in Raleigh, it needs to keep NC State in the half court and make the favorite earn a 17 point win.

Ward's shot creation matters late. When a spread this size is decided in the final minutes, an underdog needs a guard who can get his own shot against a set defense, and Ward just did that with 25 points at Arizona State. The total is 152.5, high enough that both teams should score in the 70s, which keeps the back door open all night.

The honest counterpoint is Lubin and NC State's depth. Lubin did not miss a shot in the opener and dominated the glass, Adams and Hammond give the Wolfpack two more creators, and if NC State wins the paint that clearly, East Tennessee State's defense will crack in the second half.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.