Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Five days after Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-1 at Hamburg SV in the German Cup, the two clubs meet again on Sunday, this time at Deutsche Bank Park in the Bundesliga. Frankfurt are fourteenth, three places below Hamburg, and their home league form has been a mixed bag. Hamburg had won three straight league matches before losing at Paderborn, and they owe Frankfurt a performance after Tuesday.

The Matchup

The cup match on Tuesday was level for almost an hour and settled in nineteen minutes. Robin Koch put Frankfurt ahead at 56 minutes, Jonathan Burkardt scored at 71, and Younes Ebnoutalib, who had come on at 72 minutes, scored three minutes later. Terem Moffi pulled one back for Hamburg at 79, but the tie was already gone.

Koch and Burkardt had both started Frankfurt's league match at Borussia Dortmund three days earlier, and Ebnoutalib started that match too, so the players who decided the cup tie are the core expected to lead Frankfurt again on Sunday. Ebnoutalib has scored 5 league goals and taken 19 shots, and Burkardt has 3 league goals next to him. Hamburg's top scorers, Yussuf Poulsen and Miro Muheim, have 2 goals each.

Frankfurt's problem is at the other end, and it is not subtle. They have conceded 17 league goals in seven matches, and Noah Atubolu has already made 32 saves behind that defence. At this ground they lost 4-1 to FC Augsburg in September, drew 2-2 with SC Freiburg, and beat FC Cologne 1-0, a home record that gives Hamburg a genuine route into the match. The 6-0 defeat at RB Leipzig on October 10 is the extreme version of the same weakness, but even the calmer home games have asked Atubolu to work.

Hamburg's league season has no middle ground. They have won three and lost four, with no draws, and their away record is one win and three defeats with 10 goals conceded, including a 5-0 loss at RB Leipzig.

What they do have is a recent habit of winning tight matches, 2-1 over FC Cologne and 1-0 over VfB Stuttgart at home and a 3-2 win at TSG Hoffenheim that shows they can score on the road when a match opens up. Muheim has 2 goals and an assist in only three matches, and Fabio Vieira has taken 14 shots, more than any Hamburg player.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Frankfurt close to the sides that started at Dortmund and in the cup, Atubolu in goal, Koch in the back line, and Ebnoutalib and Burkardt leading the line, and Hamburg close to the side that started at Paderborn, Daniel Heuer Fernandes in goal, Muheim on the left, and Poulsen and Vieira up front.

Key Factors

Tuesday cuts both ways. Frankfurt know they can open Hamburg up, because Koch, Burkardt and Ebnoutalib did it in nineteen minutes, and Hamburg know exactly what went wrong, because it happened in front of their own crowd. The league match at Deutsche Bank Park asks a different question, though. Frankfurt have to produce the pressure at home, where their league results have swung from a 4-1 defeat to a 1-0 win, and Hamburg can sit in, protect Heuer Fernandes, and wait for the counter that served them at Hoffenheim.

What beats this pick is Hamburg's stubborn streak, and it is not hard to picture. Hamburg won three straight league matches before the Paderborn defeat, they have already won away from home this season, and Frankfurt's defence has given up goals in bunches, 6 at RB Leipzig and 4 at home to FC Augsburg. If Hamburg score first, a Frankfurt side that has drawn with SC Freiburg and 1. FC Union Berlin this season can run out of patience quickly, and Tuesday's cup result becomes a poor guide.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.