Hofstra Pride vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Hofstra allowed 55.5 points a game through two games and won 24 games last season behind its defense. Arizona State is unbeaten and home, but 15.5 points is a lot to lay against a team built to shorten games.

The Matchup

Hofstra visits Arizona State on Tuesday night at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, with Arizona State a 15.5-point favorite and a total of 133.5. No moneyline is posted for this game on the ESPN odds board. The total tells you what kind of game the market expects: a grind, and grinding is what Hofstra does best.

Hofstra is 1-1, with a 97-51 win over St. Joseph's Long Island and a 60-58 loss at Princeton. The Pride have scored 77.5 points a game and allowed just 55.5, with 47.5 rebounds a game controlling the glass. Tanner Thomas leads them at 12.0 points and 8.0 rebounds a game, and Justin Moore leads them at 4.0 assists a game. The defense is not a two-game mirage, either: Hofstra went 24-10 last season, scored 75.6 a game, and allowed 66.1, one of the better defensive profiles in the CAA.

Arizona State is 2-0, with a 75-65 win over East Tennessee State and a 90-63 win over Northern Colorado. Paulius Murauskas has been the story at 27.0 points a game, Joel Foxwell leads the Sun Devils at 6.5 assists a game, and Dillan Shaw leads them at 9.0 rebounds a game. Arizona State has scored 82.5 a game and allowed 64.0. Last season the Sun Devils went 17-16, scored 76.3, and allowed 78.3, a team that won its share and defended like it was optional on plenty of nights.

Key Factors

The pace fight is the first factor. Hofstra wants this game in the 60s, where every possession is precious and a 15.5-point spread is enormous. The Pride just played Princeton to a two-point game on the road in exactly that kind of contest, and their rebounding edge, 47.5 a game against Arizona State's 37.0, limits the second chances a favorite needs to build a big margin. Fewer possessions plus fewer extra possessions is a hard recipe for a cover this size.

Thomas matters more than his 12.0 points suggest. He is Hofstra's leading scorer and leading rebounder, a frontcourt player who lets the Pride play big without giving up mobility, and Arizona State's Shaw at 9.0 rebounds a game is the only Sun Devil who matches that presence. If Thomas holds his own inside, Hofstra's defense can stay home on Murauskas instead of helping and scrambling.

The counterpoint is Murauskas himself. He is the best player in this game by a wide margin at 27.0 a game, Arizona State is home, and Hofstra is flying across the country after scoring only 58 at Princeton. If the Pride's offense stalls like that again, even their defense cannot keep 15.5 in play for 40 minutes, because Arizona State has the shooting to turn a six-minute drought into a 20-point lead. That risk is real. It is priced like a certainty, and Hofstra's two-year defensive record says it is not one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.