IU Indianapolis Jaguars vs Morehead State Eagles Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

IU Indianapolis is 3-0 and scoring 87.3 points a game in the highest-total game on this part of the slate. Morehead State is allowing 83.3 a game at home.

The Matchup

IU Indianapolis visits Morehead State on Saturday at 6:30 PM CT at Ellis T. Johnson Arena in Morehead, Kentucky, on ESPN+, with IU Indianapolis a 2.5-point road favorite, a total of 164.5, and the Jaguars priced at -135 on the moneyline against Morehead State at +114. A road favorite in November usually earns it, and the Jaguars have.

IU Indianapolis is 3-0 out of the Horizon League, scoring 87.3 points a game and allowing 73.3 this season, all three wins at home. The context matters for this Jaguars team specifically: last season IU Indianapolis went 7-25 while scoring 83.5 a game and allowing 88.3, an all-offense team that could not stop anyone.

Allowing 73.3 so far is the change, even if three home games is a kind place to start. Gus Etchison leads the Jaguars at 16.0 points and 3.0 assists a game, and Kameron Tinsley leads them at 7.0 rebounds a game. Etchison and Tinsley carry no injury designations into this game.

Morehead State is 1-2 out of the Ohio Valley Conference, scoring 76.3 points a game and allowing 83.3 this season. Last season's Eagles went 20-13 while scoring 75.3 a game and allowing 74.7, so a defense giving up 83.3 a night is a sharp fall from the program's standard. Clayton Parker leads Morehead State at 18.3 points a game, Chase Dawson leads the Eagles at 3.0 assists a game, and Tayvion Tangiora leads them at 6.0 rebounds a game. Parker, Dawson, and Tangiora carry no injury designations into this game.

Key Factors

The first factor is the Morehead State defense against a 164.5 total, the highest number in this set of games. The Eagles allow 83.3 points a game, and IU Indianapolis plays fast and scores 87.3 a game with Etchison pushing pace. A home team that cannot get stops has to win a shootout, and shootouts favor the team that has been playing them all month.

The second factor is Parker against the Jaguars' balance. Parker at 18.3 points a game is the best scorer in this game, and Morehead State's clearest path is him taking over stretches while the home crowd builds. But the Eagles lean on him the way IU Indianapolis does not lean on anyone, and a defense that rotates fresh bodies at one scorer tends to win the fourth quarter of a fast game.

The honest counterpoint is the road. IU Indianapolis is unbeaten at home and winless in its only kind of test so far, which is to say it has not taken one yet, and a 7-25 team from last season does not become a trustworthy road favorite in three weeks. Morehead State went 20-13 last season and defends its building with pride. If the Eagles slow the game even a little and Parker is the best player on the floor, the home underdog wins this outright.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.