Los Angeles Kings vs New Jersey Devils Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Los Angeles Kings (2-4-2) visits New Jersey Devils (6-4-0) on Saturday. Our data-driven pick: New Jersey Devils -1.5.

01The Matchup

New Jersey's 6-4-0 record undersells how one-sided its games look shift to shift. The Devils generate 34.9 shots per game, the heaviest attack on the Saturday slate, and allow just 25.0, scoring 3.30 and allowing 3.10 for a +0.20 differential. Los Angeles is 2-4-2, scoring 2.50 and allowing 3.62 for a -1.12 differential, and the 1.32-goal gap between these teams is the second widest on the early part of the slate.

The split that sharpens it is location: New Jersey is 5-2-0 at the Prudential Center, and while the Kings are oddly better on the road at 2-1-2 than at home, their road point pace has come while allowing 3.62 goals per game, a rate that catches up with a team eventually. The Devils' flaw is real too: 3.10 goals allowed on only 25.0 shots against is poor conversion in their own crease.

02Key Factors

First, the shot canyon: 34.9 shots for and 25.0 against for New Jersey against 29.0 for and 29.5 against for Los Angeles means the Devils project to outshoot the Kings by roughly ten, and over sixty minutes that volume gap is what turns one-goal games into two-goal games. Second, the Kings' penalty kill is the single worst unit in this game at 63.0 percent, and it faces a New Jersey power play converting at 21.9 percent; Los Angeles takes its chances shorthanded at its own peril, because more than one in three kills has ended in a goal against. Third, the counterweight sits in New Jersey's net and its own kill: the Devils allow 3.10 per game despite elite suppression and kill only 72.0 percent themselves, so if Los Angeles scores first and the game opens up, the margin this puck line needs gets harder, not easier.

03The Pick

New Jersey Devils -1.5 at +150. The differential gap is +1.32, clear of the 1.00 threshold this model requires for a puck line, and every supporting number points the same way: a 34.9-shot attack against a team allowing 3.62 goals per game, a 5-2-0 home record, and a Kings penalty kill at 63.0 percent that cannot survive a parade to the box against a 21.9 percent power play.

The honest risk is New Jersey's own goaltending conversion, 3.10 goals allowed on 25.0 shots against, which is how a territorially dominant team ends up in a 3-2 game it should have won 4-1, and Los Angeles at 2-1-2 on the road has made a habit of hanging around. At +150, the price pays for that risk. The volume edge is too large to settle for the moneyline. Devils -1.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.