LSU vs Auburn Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

AP No. 18 LSU brings the week's most productive offense, 504.0 yards per game, into Jordan-Hare Stadium, where Auburn just beat Georgia. The Tigers are 8.5-point road favorites.

01The Matchup

This is the hardest road environment on the noon slate, and AP No. 18 LSU in the AP Top 25 knows it: Auburn is 4-2, just beat Georgia at home, and Jordan-Hare Stadium in a rivalry game is a different assignment than the record suggests. LSU's case is its offense, the most productive on this week's board at 504.0 yards per game, split between 308.0 passing yards behind quarterback Sam Leavitt and 196.0 rushing yards with 20 rushing touchdowns.

The Tigers score 40.4 points per game and allow 15.9, with a pass rush that has produced 27 sacks. Auburn's offense is more modest at 26.8 points per game, but quarterback Byrum Brown is a genuine dual threat who led Auburn in both passing and rushing in its last game, and the Tigers' defense has 8 interceptions and allows 21.8 points per game. LSU is clearly better on paper. Jordan-Hare has spent decades making that sentence irrelevant.

02Key Factors

First, LSU's pass rush against Brown's legs. The visiting Tigers have 27 sacks, and Auburn's offense runs through a quarterback who carries the ball himself; if LSU's front keeps Brown in the pocket, Auburn's 6.6 yards per attempt passing game has to win on schedule, which it rarely does. Second, LSU's own mistakes are the underdog's best friend: 8 interceptions thrown and 11 giveaways for a road favorite is sloppy, and Auburn's 8 defensive interceptions are built to punish exactly that.

Third, the spot matters. Auburn just knocked off the AP No. 1 team in this building, its confidence and crowd are at a season peak, and LSU is laying 8.5 in a venue where favorites with better profiles than this have lost outright. Auburn's +5.0 scoring margin is no match for LSU's +24.5 over a neutral field season, but this is not a neutral field.

03The Pick

Take Auburn +8.5. Our numbers project LSU by 7, with a projected score of LSU 29, Auburn 22, a small edge that rests on the venue and on Auburn's ball-hawking secondary against a mistake-prone favorite. Leavitt and the LSU offense should produce, and 504.0 yards per game is a real advantage that likely decides the winner.

But 11 giveaways is a heavy tax to carry into Jordan-Hare, and Auburn, fresh off beating Georgia in this stadium, has the defense and the dual-threat quarterback to turn one or two short fields into a one-score game. LSU wins the game and keeps its season moving; Auburn, getting more than a touchdown at home, is the side that covers.

Interested in more college football picks? Read our thoughts on who covers in USC vs Wisconsin.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.