Marshall Thundering Herd vs Youngstown State Penguins Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Noah Otshudi is scoring 21.7 points a game for Marshall, and Youngstown State finally plays at home after three road games to open the season.

The Matchup

Marshall visits Youngstown State on Saturday at 12:00 PM CT at Zidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center in Youngstown, Ohio, on ESPN+, with Marshall a 1.5-point favorite, a total of 160.5, and Marshall priced at -115 on the moneyline against Youngstown State at -105. It is the Penguins' first home game of the season after three straight on the road.

Marshall is 1-2 out of the Sun Belt Conference, scoring 80.7 points a game and allowing 76.7 this season. Noah Otshudi leads the Thundering Herd at 21.7 points and 4.0 assists a game, the best scorer in this game by a wide margin, and Khaman Maker leads Marshall at 7.3 rebounds a game.

Otshudi and Maker carry no injury designations into this game. Marshall shoots 47 percent as a team and averages 41.3 rebounds a game, a big, efficient group that has lost two straight anyway, which says the defense keeps giving back what the offense earns.

Youngstown State is 1-2 out of the Horizon League, scoring 74.0 points a game and allowing 83.7 this season, with all three games played away from home. Linus Holmstrom leads the Penguins at 14.3 points a game, Dom Aekins leads them at 6.3 assists a game, and Jeff Nwankwo leads them at 6.3 rebounds a game, and Holmstrom, Aekins, and Nwankwo carry no injury designations into this game. The defensive slide is the thing the home opener has to fix: last season's Penguins went 15-17 and allowed 73.1 points a game, so 83.7 allowed is a fall from their own standard, while Marshall's 19-13 team last season scored 81.1 a game, almost exactly the rate the Herd is scoring at now.

Key Factors

The first factor is Aekins against a Marshall defense that gives possessions away. Aekins hands out 6.3 assists a game, the best creating number in this matchup, and Marshall turns the ball over 14.7 times a game while allowing 76.7 points a night. A home team with a genuine organizer, finally playing in its own building, gets to dictate where shots come from against a defense that has not dictated anything yet this season.

The second factor is the total. At 160.5, this game is priced for a shootout, and shootouts reward the team that keeps its offense organized late. Youngstown State takes care of the ball at 12.7 turnovers a game and shares it at 14.3 assists a game, while Holmstrom gives the Penguins a second scoring option behind Aekins' creation. The Penguins do not need to stop Marshall cold. They need the last ten possessions to be cleaner than the visitor's.

The honest counterpoint is Otshudi himself, plus the glass. A guard scoring 21.7 points a game against a defense allowing 83.7, with almost no rim protection behind it at 0.7 blocks a game, can take this game over by himself, and Maker's rebounding on a team averaging 41.3 boards a game gives Marshall second chances Youngstown State's smaller group, at 31.3 rebounds a game, will struggle to take away. If Otshudi gets downhill early and the Penguins are chasing from the first half on, the home opener energy will not be enough to close the gap.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.