Minnesota United FC vs LAFC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Minnesota United FC arrive at BMO Stadium on Sunday unbeaten in five and still chasing the West's last wild-card place, against an LAFC side that has won once in five and keeps letting leads and points slip.

The Matchup

Minnesota's run has been built on goals at the right moments. They are unbeaten in five, they have scored 10 times in those matches, and the run has a bit of everything in it, draws with Houston Dynamo FC home and away, a win over St. Louis CITY SC, and a 3-1 win over Sporting Kansas City on Thursday that kept their season alive. Kelvin Yeboah is the centre of it. He has 18 goals this season, and Joaquín Pereyra, who has 15 assists, keeps finding him in the spaces between a back line and its midfield.

LAFC have more talent and less momentum. They are sixth in the West at 12-11-9, with Denis Bouanga on 18 goals and Son Heung-Min adding 7 goals and 14 assists, and on paper that front line should frighten a Minnesota defence that has conceded 56 times. The recent evidence is flatter.

LAFC have won once in five, they drew with Vancouver Whitecaps and at New York City FC, and they let a lead go in the 2-2 derby draw with LA Galaxy last weekend. Their defending remains the best part of their case, with 35 conceded in 32 matches, but a side that keeps drawing games it expects to win is not one to lay a thick price on.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Minnesota close to the side that beat Sporting Kansas City, Drake Callender in goal, Morris Duggan and Jefferson Díaz at the back, and Yeboah leading the line with Aziel Jackson after both started on Thursday.

Anthony Markanich, who has 9 goals from the left side, is expected to start again after playing in that win. For LAFC, the expectation is Hugo Lloris in goal, Ryan Porteous at the back, and Bouanga and Son carrying the threat after both started against LA Galaxy.

Key Factors

Minnesota's need is the situational fact that shapes this match. They sit twelfth in the West on 38 points, five behind Seattle Sounders FC in the last wild-card place, and the season is close to the point where draws stop helping. That urgency suits a counter-attacking side. Minnesota do not need the ball to hurt a favourite. They need Yeboah running at a defence that has committed numbers forward, and Pereyra's passing gives them the quickest route out of their own half when LAFC press.

The counterpoint is obvious and it wears LAFC's shirt. Bouanga has scored as many league goals as Yeboah, Son creates as much as he scores, and if either of them finds a yard in the first half hour, Minnesota are chasing a game at a ground where LAFC rarely collapse. Minnesota's defending is the other worry.

A side that has conceded 56 goals cannot plan on a shutout, so this pick lives on Minnesota scoring and staying within one. What beats it is an early LAFC goal followed by the controlled home performance this squad produces when it bothers to, and that version of LAFC has simply not shown up often enough lately to trust at this number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.