Napoli vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Champions League

FC Porto have lost all three of their Champions League matches and have not scored at home in this competition, and on Wednesday night at the Dragão they host a Napoli side that has already won a seven-goal game in this league phase and badly needs the points itself.

The Matchup

FC Porto are thirty-fourth in the league phase at 0-0-3, and the home record is the bleakest part of it. They lost 0-2 to Manchester City at the Dragão, lost 2-3 at Real Betis, and then lost 0-1 to PSV Eindhoven back at home, so two home matches in this competition have produced no goals at all.

Gabri Veiga and Samu Aghehowa have a goal each, and goalkeeper Diogo Costa has made 14 saves, a workload that says Porto spend long stretches of these games defending their own box. The domestic form has steadied them, with a 4-0 win over Estoril on October 31 and a 1-0 win at Gil Vicente before it, but the step up to this level has caught them out every time so far.

Napoli are twenty-second at 1-0-2, and their campaign has swung the other way. They lost 0-1 to Arsenal and 1-3 at Villarreal, then beat Bodo/Glimt 4-3 at home in the kind of open game that shows both their threat and their problem. Scott McTominay leads the side in this competition with 2 goals, Matteo Politano has a goal and an assist, and Kevin De Bruyne has an assist, so the creativity is there even if the defending is not.

Neither club has named its side yet. Porto are expected to keep the shape from the Estoril win, with Aghehowa expected to lead the line, while Napoli are expected to stay in the shape they used at Juventus, with McTominay and De Bruyne expected to start in midfield.

Key Factors

The pressure in this game sits almost entirely on the home side. Porto have to win to keep any realistic route through the league phase alive, and a team that has to chase a game it has not been able to score in at home is a team that leaves space behind it. Napoli are built to use that space.

Politano and Noa Lang carry the ball into the areas a pushed-up full back vacates, and McTominay arrives late in the box in a way Porto's midfield has struggled to track in this competition. Porto's best route is the opposite game, slow and tight, but the table does not let them play it for long if the first goal does not come.

The honest counterpoint is Napoli's own defending. They have conceded seven goals in three matches in this competition, they lost 0-2 at Juventus on November 1, and their one away scoring return in this league phase is a single goal.

If Porto score first at home, with the crowd up and Napoli forced to open out, the visitors could chase this game the way they chased Villarreal and lose it the same way. A Napoli side that keeps its shape and takes the draw that is on offer beats this pick's risk. A Napoli side that treats the night as a shootout does not.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.