Nashville Predators vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Nashville Predators (3-3-3) visits Pittsburgh Penguins (4-6-1) on Saturday. Our data-driven pick: Pittsburgh Penguins ML.

01The Matchup

Pittsburgh's 4-6-1 record looks like a team going nowhere until the split is opened up: the Penguins are 3-1-0 at PPG Paints Arena and 1-5-1 on the road, which makes them two different teams depending on the building. Saturday they are in the right one. Pittsburgh scores 3.27 goals per game and allows 3.36 for a -0.09 differential, modest numbers that still clear Nashville's: the Predators are 3-3-3, scoring just 2.56 and allowing 3.11 for a -0.56 differential, and they are 1-1-2 on the road.

The territorial lean matches the scoring lean, Pittsburgh generating 26.9 shots and allowing 27.6 against Nashville at 24.8 generated and 29.3 allowed. Neither team defends well enough to make this a low-event game, which puts the burden on finishing, and only one of these teams finishes at a real rate.

02Key Factors

First, the finishing gap: Pittsburgh scores 3.27 per game, Nashville 2.56, and in a matchup where both teams allow more than three, the team that converts its chances at the higher rate usually creates the margin. Second, Nashville's best weapon is its power play at 28.6 percent, the strongest unit in this game, but it runs into a Pittsburgh kill at 83.3 percent, the same mark Nashville's own kill carries against a 21.2 percent Penguins power play, so the special-teams trade is closer to even than the headline rates suggest. Third, faceoffs quietly hurt the home team: Pittsburgh wins just 45.6 percent of draws against Nashville's 48.7 percent, so the Penguins will start a few more shifts chasing, and for a team allowing 3.36 per game, defensive-zone draws are where its worst minutes begin.

03The Pick

Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline at -135, a home-split play more than a profile play. The differential gap is only +0.47, -0.09 against -0.56, which on its own would be a coin-flip lean, but the location data is unusually decisive here: Pittsburgh is 3-1-0 at home and 1-5-1 on the road, Nashville is 1-1-2 away from home, and the Penguins hold the finishing edge at 3.27 goals per game against 2.56 in a game where both defenses leak.

The risk is stated plainly: Pittsburgh allows 3.36 per game, loses the faceoff battle at 45.6 percent, and faces a 28.6 percent Nashville power play that can flip a one-goal game with a single conversion. If the Predators score first on the man advantage, this gets uncomfortable. At home, at -135, Pittsburgh's scoring rate is still the better bet. Penguins ML.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.