Natus Vincere vs Falcons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - IEM Beijing 2026

Falcons play their first series in two weeks at IEM Beijing 2026, and their Group A opener is a Natus Vincere side that spent last week beating Spirit and FURIA in Bucharest.

The Matchup

Group A at IEM Beijing 2026 pairs the team that sat last week out with the team that spent it playing elimination Counter-Strike. Falcons sit No. 6 in the world on HLTV's current ranking and Natus Vincere sit No. 11, and the two open their group against each other on Monday morning.

Falcons turned down a place at PGL Masters Bucharest and have not played a series since October 18, when Aurora beat them in the Thunderpick third-place match. Natus Vincere went to Bucharest instead and made the playoffs. They swept G2 and FURIA in the Swiss stage, lost to BetBoom and Vitality, then beat Spirit in a decider to reach the quarterfinal, where Vitality beat them again in three maps.

The recent meetings lean the other way. Falcons have won the last two series between these teams, most recently a three-map win at ESL Pro League on October 6. Both teams start with their regular five. Falcons go with karrigan, NiKo, TeSeS, m0NESY and kyousuke, and Natus Vincere go with Aleksib, iM, b1t, w0nderful and makazze, with no stand-in on either side.

Key Factors

The sharpest form in this server belongs to Natus Vincere's young rifler. makazze went 57-37 with a 1.63 rating in the Bucharest win over Spirit, the No. 1 team in the world, and w0nderful added 50 kills at a 1.40 rating in the same series. Two days earlier Natus Vincere had swept FURIA, who went on to win the whole event, and even in the quarterfinal loss to Vitality, b1t topped their side at 43-37 with a 1.20 rating. That is a week of reps against the best teams in the world, played days ago.

Falcons' ceiling is higher, and it lives on one AWP. m0NESY has a 1.28 rating across 276 maps as a Falcons player, and he went 37-20 with a 1.44 rating when Falcons swept Aurora at Pro League last month. Around him, though, the last picture is a cold one. kyousuke finished the Thunderpick semifinal loss to BetBoom at 39-48 with a 0.84 rating, the bottom of the server, and Falcons lost that series and the Aurora match that followed it to close their event.

They have had two weeks to practice since, and practice is not series form. The counterpoint is real, and it is the head-to-head. Falcons beat this exact Natus Vincere lineup in October and at the Cologne Major in June, m0NESY is the best player in the server when his AWP is warm, and a rested team with two weeks to prepare one veto can start a group fast.

If Falcons take the opening map cleanly, Natus Vincere's long week of travel and elimination matches can catch up with them. The pick rests on the simpler reading. One team arrives with its stars already producing against elite opposition, and the other has to find that level cold, in its first series since October 18.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.