New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Sam Houston has been held to 21 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games and rushes for just 78.7 yards per game, while James Jones gives New Mexico State a 599-yard ground game to lean on in Huntsville.

01The Matchup

Two Conference USA teams heading the wrong way meet in Huntsville on a Wednesday night, and the difference between them is on the ground. New Mexico State is 2-4 and averages 23.7 points and 373.3 yards per game, built around running back James Jones, who has 599 rushing yards on 92 carries - 6.5 yards a pop - for an offense that runs for 142.8 yards per game.

Sam Houston is 1-5 and stuck at 18.6 points and 290.6 yards per game. The Bearkats rush for just 78.7 yards per game, so nearly everything runs through quarterback Landyn Locke, who has thrown for 1,418 yards with 11 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. When one team can run and the other cannot, the clock and the field position usually follow the team that can.

02Key Factors

Sam Houston's one-dimensional offense plays straight into the one thing New Mexico State does well defensively. The Aggies have 15 sacks, led by Gabe Peterson's 4.5, and a pass rush that knows the throw is coming is a different problem for Locke, however efficient he has been.

The honest case against the favorite is real, though: New Mexico State is 0-3 on the road, quarterback Trey Hedden has thrown 6 interceptions against 5 touchdowns, and the Aggies scored 3 points at FIU last time out. Sam Houston has also lost 3 straight and allows 25.6 points per game, so the home crowd is backing a defense that has not held anyone lately either. This game turns on whether Jones gets going early enough to keep Hedden out of obvious passing downs.

03The Pick

Neither offense is scaring anyone, which is why the total sits at 46.5, but New Mexico State owns the most reliable unit in the game: a rushing attack averaging 142.8 yards per game against a Sam Houston team that has been held to 21 points or fewer in 6 of its 7 games and cannot run the ball itself at 78.7 yards per game. Locke keeps the Bearkats competitive, and the Aggies' road record says keep expectations modest, but a field goal is a fair price for the team that can control the line of scrimmage and shorten the game. Editorial pick: New Mexico State -3.

Interested in more college football picks? Read our thoughts on who covers in Pittsburgh vs Miami.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.