Norfolk State Spartans vs William & Mary Tribe Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

William & Mary won 20 games last season and scored 83 a game. Norfolk State is 2-0, but neither team has faced a Division I opponent yet, and the Tribe are laying 9.5 at home.

The Matchup

Norfolk State visits William and Mary on Sunday evening at Kaplan Arena in Williamsburg, on FloSports, with William and Mary a 9.5-point favorite, a total of 156.5, and the Tribe priced at -485 on the moneyline against Norfolk State at +370. Neither team has played a Division I opponent yet: Norfolk State is 2-0, and William and Mary has played once.

Norfolk State beat Regent 68-45 and Randolph 78-71, with Bahsil Laster scoring 38 points with 10 rebounds and 8 assists across the two games and Jordan Skyers adding 33 points. William and Mary beat Bridgewater 80-66 in its only game, with Brian Carter Jr. scoring 19 points with 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Last season, across the full season, Norfolk State finished 15-17, scoring 76.4 points a game and allowing 73.8, and William and Mary finished 20-12, scoring 83.1 and allowing 77.7. Those are last season's numbers: the Tribe were the better team and the far better offense, but the gap between the two was a handful of points, not the double digits the market is asking the Tribe to cover against a team it has not seen at this level yet.

Key Factors

The Tribe's pace sets the terms. William and Mary scored 83.1 points a game last season and the total of 156.5 expects another fast game, and Norfolk State is willing to run: the Spartans scored 76.4 a game last season and Laster gives them a guard who can create late in the clock when the pace slows. In a high-possession game, a 9.5-point spread asks the favorite to be better on most of those possessions, and nothing in either team's first week, all of it against lower-division opponents, proves that gap.

The counterpoint is real: Norfolk State's 2-0 start tells us almost nothing, because Regent and Randolph are not Division I teams, and William and Mary at home, with last season's 20-win core, could simply be a class above. If the Tribe's shots fall early and the building gets loud, this can get away from the Spartans. The bet is that the proven gap between these programs is a few points, and that 9.5 is priced off last season's win totals rather than the distance between the teams on the floor.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.