Northwestern State Demons vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Mississippi State scored 106 points in its opener and still gave up 88. Northwestern State has already survived one power conference road test this week, and that combination makes a three touchdown spread worth a second look.

The Matchup

Northwestern State visits Mississippi State on Thursday night at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, with Mississippi State a 21.5-point favorite, a total of 152.5, on SECN+. Both teams have a game played, and both openers were played at a sprint.

Last season Northwestern State finished 10-22, scoring 68.3 points a game and allowing 72.4. Mississippi State finished 13-19, scoring 77.6 and allowing 81.8. The honest read after one game each is about shape, not certainty: the Bulldogs score more and defend less than a typical SEC favorite, and the Demons are used to living on the road against bigger programs.

Mississippi State beat Tennessee Tech 106-88 in its opener, a game that showed both edges of this team. Josh Hubbard scored 25 points with 9 assists, and King Grace added 23 points off the bench on 8-of-12 shooting. Northwestern State lost 87-65 at Baylor, which sounds rough until the context lands: it was a road opener against a Big 12 team, and the Demons still put three scorers in double figures.

Key Factors

Northwestern State's scoring is spread out enough to keep it attached. Kai Simpson scored 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting at Baylor, Nathan Ojukwu added 13, and Isaiah Vick scored 12 points with 7 rebounds and went 6-of-6 at the free-throw line. A big underdog covers when it avoids the five minute drought, and a team with three working scorers plus a forward who can draw fouls has more ways to stop a run than a one man offense does.

Mississippi State's defense is the hole in the favorite's case. Tennessee Tech shot 48 percent against the Bulldogs, scored 46 points in the paint, and put up 88 points in Starkville. Mississippi State also committed 15 turnovers of its own. A favorite can survive that when it is laying a short price. Laying 21.5, every empty trip and every easy basket allowed is a possession the cover has to win back somewhere else, and the Bulldogs' opener suggests those leaks are real.

The counterpoint is Mississippi State's shooting ceiling, and it is a genuine one. The Bulldogs shot 58 percent as a team in the opener and made 12 of 24 threes, with Hubbard and Grace both hot at once. Northwestern State shot only 37 percent at Baylor and turned it over 16 times.

If the Bulldogs shoot anywhere near their opener level and the Demons hand them extra possessions again, this margin can run past the number by halftime. The bet is that a defense that just allowed 88 points at home does not suddenly become airtight, and that a battle tested road underdog keeps scoring long enough to stay inside a very large spread.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.