Paris Saint-Germain vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Champions League

Paris Saint-Germain sit top of the Champions League league-phase table with three wins from three, and on Tuesday they visit Villarreal at Estadio de la Cerámica, a home side that has scored in every match of its own campaign and conceded in all of them too.

The Matchup

Paris Saint-Germain have made the league phase look routine. They are first with three wins from three matches and 14 goals scored, beating Slovan Bratislava 6-1 at home, winning 4-2 at Manchester City and then beating Barcelona 4-2 in Paris.

Ousmane Dembélé leads the side in this competition with 3 goals and 3 assists and a team-high 12 shots, Ferran Torres has 3 goals of his own, and Désiré Doué has 2 goals and 2 assists in two appearances. The supply lines run deep enough that no single marker can quiet this attack for long.

Villarreal are a stranger side than their 19th place suggests. They lost 3-2 at Borussia Dortmund, beat Napoli 3-1 in this stadium and lost 4-3 at Liverpool, scoring in every match and conceding in every match, eight goals at each end across the three games. Georges Mikautadze has 2 goals and an assist, Santiago Mouriño, a defender, has 2 goals, and Tani Oluwaseyi has 2 more, so the threat arrives from all over the pitch rather than from one forward a defense can plan around.

Neither club has named its side yet. Paris Saint-Germain are expected to keep the shape from the 5-1 win at Le Havre on October 30, with Ferran Torres leading the line, while Villarreal are expected to stay in the 4-4-2 they used against Espanyol, with Mikautadze alongside Gerard Moreno.

Key Factors

Villarreal's home match in this competition is the warning. Napoli came here on October 13 and left beaten 3-1, and a side that scores three against Napoli and three at Liverpool does not need many invitations.

Paris Saint-Germain have also conceded twice in each of their two heavyweight tests, at Manchester City and against Barcelona, so the clean, controlled away win is not really in their repertoire this season. If Villarreal score first, or score at all early, the favorite has to chase the game in a stadium that enjoys exactly that kind of night.

What Villarreal have not shown is a way to stop a top attack for a full match. They have conceded in every game they have played in this competition, and even the Napoli win in this stadium needed three goals because the visitors scored too. The table sharpens the home side's problem rather than softening it.

Villarreal sit 19th on 3 points, level with the sides below the playoff line, so a cautious night that drifts toward a draw does them limited good, and the longer they chase a result the more space Dembélé and Ferran Torres get to run into. Paris Saint-Germain can absorb a scare in a way Villarreal cannot.

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