Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Pittsburgh Penguins (3-3-1) visits Vegas Golden Knights (7-2-0) on Saturday. Our data-driven pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5.

01The Matchup

The nightcap at T-Mobile Arena pairs the slate's best record with a Pittsburgh team playing its second game in two nights after Friday's trip to Colorado. Vegas is 7-2-0, scoring 3.89 goals per game and allowing 2.44 for a plus-1.44 differential, with a shot profile of 31.0 for and 25.6 against that confirms the record is earned. Pittsburgh is 3-3-1, scoring 3.43 and allowing 3.00 for a plus-0.43 differential, and the Penguins played Friday night in Denver before traveling to Las Vegas, while the Golden Knights waited at home. Even before the schedule spot, Vegas holds the better number in nearly every column; the back-to-back turns a solid home edge into the widest situational gap on the slate.

02Key Factors

First, the rest and travel spot is specific and severe: Pittsburgh played at altitude in Colorado on Friday night (a game previewed on this site) and now faces a rested 7-2-0 team in its own building, the classic second-night letdown setup. Second, Vegas's power play at 25.7 percent against Pittsburgh's strong 89.5 percent penalty kill is the game's best unit-versus-unit fight, and Pittsburgh's kill is the visitors' best argument; the Penguins' own 16.7 percent power play faces a weaker 77.3 percent Vegas kill. Third, faceoffs and territory both lean home: Vegas wins 51.8 percent of draws to Pittsburgh's 45.6 percent and outshoots opponents by 5.4 per game, while Pittsburgh plays almost exactly even on shots (28.4 for, 28.3 against).

03The Pick

Vegas minus-1.5 at plus-100. The differential gap is plus-1.02, just past the puck-line threshold, and what pushes this from a threshold lean to a firmer play is the schedule: a rested home team at plus-1.44 hosting a plus-0.43 visitor on the second night of a back-to-back that started at altitude in Denver. Vegas scores 3.89 per game, allows 2.44, and holds the faceoff edge 51.8 percent to 45.6 percent, all of which matter more against tired legs in the third period, when puck lines are usually decided. Pittsburgh's 89.5 percent penalty kill is the named risk, because it can keep a tired team in a one-goal game. At even money, the rested and better team laying a goal and a half is the right price. Golden Knights minus-1.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.