San Diego State vs Colorado State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Colorado State averages 445.4 yards and 35.7 points per game with Mel Brown rushing for 431 yards, while San Diego State scores 23.3 points per game and converts just 29.4% on third down.

01The Matchup

The records point one way and the offenses point the other. Colorado State is 2-4, but the Rams average 445.4 yards and 35.7 points per game, throwing for 274.7 yards and running for 170.7 at 5.7 yards per carry. K'saan Farrar has gone 89 of 144 for 931 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, Mel Brown has rushed for 431 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 47 carries, and RJ Vick leads the receivers with 24 catches for 367 yards and 4 touchdowns.

San Diego State is 3-4 yet averages only 292.9 yards and 23.3 points per game. Jayden Denegal has thrown for 899 yards with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, Javion Kinnard leads the Aztecs with 432 rushing yards, and Nathan Acevedo tops the receivers at just 181 yards.

02Key Factors

Colorado State stays on schedule in ways San Diego State does not. The Rams convert 43.7% on third down against 29.4% for the Aztecs, own a plus-5 turnover margin against minus-1 for San Diego State, and have given the ball away only 4 times in 6 games while the Aztecs have given it away 10 times in 7.

The Aztec counter is pressure: San Diego State has 16 sacks, led by Djibril Rahman's 4, against just 7 sacks for Colorado State. The Rams secondary answers with 7 interceptions of its own, and Denegal throws at 5.7 yards per attempt with a 55.5% completion rate, against 7.3 yards per attempt for the Rams passing game.

03The Pick

Getting points at home with the better offense is the side here. Colorado State outgains San Diego State by 152.5 yards per game and outscores the Aztecs by 12.4 points per game, and Brown gives the Rams an explosive back who is already at 431 rushing yards on limited carries.

San Diego State's pass rush can wreck individual drives, but an offense converting 29.4% on third down has to string together too many of those drives at Canvas Stadium. The Rams are the more complete team in this matchup, and getting points at home makes them the play. Editorial pick: Colorado State +1.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.