SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Bottom of the Bundesliga with one league win all season, Borussia Mönchengladbach host SC Paderborn 07 at Borussia-Park on Saturday. Gladbach have lost all three of their home matches and conceded 22 goals, more than anyone else in the league, and the visitors arrive with the tighter defence and a chance to push the hosts further adrift at the foot of the table.

The Matchup

Gladbach's season has been a slow slide to the foot of the table. They are 18th at 1-0-6, they have conceded 22 goals in seven matches, more than anyone else in the league, and Borussia-Park has offered no shelter: SV Elversberg won 4-3 here, Mainz won 4-3 here, and TSG Hoffenheim won 2-1 here, so Gladbach have lost all three of their home matches.

Their one league win came on the road, 3-2 at VfB Stuttgart on October 23, and even that came with two more goals conceded. Joe Scally, a full back, is their top scorer with 3 goals, which tells its own story about where this side's threat is supposed to come from and where it is actually coming from.

Paderborn sit 13th at 2-2-3, and their season runs the other way. They have scored only 6 goals, but they have conceded just 9, and their best work has come at home: a 3-1 win over TSG Hoffenheim and a 1-0 win over Hamburg SV, with home defeats to SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart the blemishes.

On the road they are still looking for a first win, with a goalless draw at Mainz, a 3-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund, and a 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen. Steffen Tigges and Stefano Marino, who both started against Hamburg, have 2 goals each, and Tigges has taken 15 shots, the most in the side.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Paderborn keeping the side that beat Hamburg, Tigges and Marino up front, and Gladbach staying with the shape that finally won a game, Moritz Nicolas behind a back three with Scally and Lukas Ullrich wide and Hugo Bolin and Wael Mohya, 2 goals each, around Shuto Machino.

Key Factors

The number that hangs over this match sits in Gladbach's defensive column. Every opponent they have faced this season has scored at least twice against them, and Nicolas has already made 36 saves, so Paderborn do not need to be prolific to get their chances in this game.

They need to be what they have been all season: compact, patient, and willing to let a nervous home crowd do some of the work. Gladbach have won once in the league all season, it took three goals to do it, and it happened on the road at Stuttgart; at Borussia-Park they have lost three from three.

The honest counterpoint is Paderborn's own attack. Six goals in seven matches is a thin return, they failed to score in four of their seven matches, and they have yet to win away from home.

Gladbach's front line is the more talented one: Bolin has taken 18 shots this season, and the win at Stuttgart showed this side can outscore an opponent when the game opens up. If Gladbach score first and the ground settles behind them, Paderborn are chasing a game they are not built to chase, and the visitors' whole plan depends on that not happening early.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.