Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Siena forward Tim Ibukunoluwa is averaging 25.0 points and 13.0 rebounds a game. Dayton, coming off an overtime home loss, lays 13.5 at UD Arena on Tuesday night.

The Matchup

Siena visits Dayton on Tuesday night at UD Arena in Dayton, on ESPN+, with Dayton a 13.5-point favorite, a total of 152.5, and the Flyers priced at -1,000 on the moneyline against Siena at +650. Both teams are 1-1. This line moved toward Dayton during the day, opening at 12.5 before settling at 13.5 on the final read.

Siena split its first week with real work. The Saints lost 80-75 to Bryant, then won 82-68 at Princeton, scoring 78.5 points a game and allowing 74.0. Tim Ibukunoluwa has been dominant, leading Siena at 25.0 points a game and 13.0 rebounds a game. Pace Prosser hands out 7.0 assists a game, so the Saints' offense runs through a true creator feeding a finisher. Ibukunoluwa and Prosser are both active with no injury designations.

Dayton beat NJIT 89-58 at home, then lost 81-76 in overtime to Northern Illinois at home on November 8, scoring 82.5 points a game and allowing 69.5. Aiden Derkack leads the Flyers at 20.5 points a game and 10.5 rebounds a game, and Tristian Ford hands out 3.0 assists a game.

Last season both teams won big. Dayton went 25-12, scoring 74.1 points a game and allowing 69.3. Siena went 23-12, scoring 70.4 and allowing 65.8, with one of the better defenses in its league. The Flyers are the right favorite at home, but Siena is not a buy-game visitor: this is a 23-win team from last season whose best player has opened the season dominating the glass, walking into a building where the home team just lost to Northern Illinois.

Key Factors

The frontcourt battle decides whether this stays close. Ibukunoluwa at 25.0 points and 13.0 rebounds a game against Derkack at 20.5 and 10.5 is close to a wash on paper, and a wash inside is exactly what a 13.5-point underdog needs. Prosser gives Siena the cleaner offense at 7.0 assists a game against Ford at 3.0 for Dayton, so the Saints' possessions should be better organized than a typical road underdog's.

Dayton's home loss matters beyond the result. Northern Illinois scored 81 points at UD Arena and won in overtime, which says the Flyers' defense can be gotten at in this building right now. Siena scored 82 at Princeton in its last game, a real road win, and a Saints team that defends the way last season's group did, allowing 65.8 a game, can keep Dayton's runs short.

The honest counterpoint is Dayton's depth and the building. UD Arena is one of the hardest road stops in the Atlantic 10, the Flyers went 25-12 last season, and Siena's Bryant loss showed the Saints can be scored on. If Derkack wins the frontcourt battle outright and Dayton's crowd gets rolling, the favorite can absolutely pull away. The bet is that Ibukunoluwa and Prosser keep Siena organized and close enough that 13.5 points is too many to give away.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.