South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 6 Texas has won its first two games by 20 and 62 points, and Wednesday brings a South Dakota State team that won 27 games last season and just beat Northern Iowa by 22. The Longhorns are favored by 27.5 at the Moody Center.

The Matchup

Texas is 2-0, and the two wins show the range of what the Longhorns can do to a smaller team. They beat Fairleigh Dickinson 85-65 and Northern Colorado 91-29 at the Moody Center, scoring 88.0 points per game and allowing 47.0. Madison Booker has been the best player on the floor both nights, scoring 24 points against Fairleigh Dickinson and 30 against Northern Colorado, and Breya Cunningham added 21 points and 13 rebounds in the opener. Booker and Cunningham carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

South Dakota State is not a buy-game opponent, whatever the spread says. The Jackrabbits went 27-7 last season, scoring 75.9 points per game and allowing 61.6, and they have opened 1-1 against real competition: a 73-71 loss to Creighton and a 76-54 win over Northern Iowa on Saturday.

Brooklyn Meyer scored 18 points with 8 rebounds against Northern Iowa after 12 points against Creighton, and Emilee Fox handed out 7 assists on Saturday after scoring 14 in the opener. Meyer and Fox carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Two games each is a small file, so last season still matters here, and last season says these programs are closer than this market treats them. Texas went 35-4, scoring 83.9 points per game and allowing 55.8, and the Longhorns have picked up where they left off.

South Dakota State's 27 wins came in the Summit League, a step down in nightly competition, and the two-point Creighton loss is a fair warning about what a power-conference athlete can do to them. But the Jackrabbits handled Northern Iowa by 22 on Saturday, and they arrive in Austin with their rotation intact and a win already in hand.

Key Factors

The spread is 27.5, and the game turns on Texas's pressure against South Dakota State's ball security. Texas forced 32 turnovers against Northern Colorado and 18 against Fairleigh Dickinson, and that pressure is how a 15-point game becomes a 30-point game in one quarter. The Jackrabbits turned it over 12 times against Creighton and 13 against Northern Iowa, low numbers for a team that shares the ball the way they do: Fox and Mahli Abdouch combined for 12 assists on Saturday.

The other lever is Cunningham inside. Fairleigh Dickinson had no answer for her 21 points and 13 rebounds, and Northern Colorado fared no better against the Longhorns' size. Meyer is South Dakota State's answer, and she has been efficient, making 8 of 11 shots against Northern Iowa. If Meyer gets into foul trouble, the Jackrabbits have no second post who scores like her, and in this sport losing your one interior scorer against a team this deep is how a cover dies. Her fouls in the first half are worth watching.

The case for Texas is the second half of the Northern Colorado game, when the Longhorns' depth turned a comfortable win into a 62-point rout, and Booker is good enough to build a 20-point lead by herself before the benches matter. South Dakota State has not seen this kind of athlete yet this season. The pick rests on the Jackrabbits being a veteran team that protects the ball and makes Texas earn the margin in the half court, possession by possession.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.