Southern Illinois Salukis vs Kansas City Roos Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Southern Illinois hit 16 threes in its opener. Kansas City turned the ball over 22 times in its. A road favorite in Kansas City has a clear path and a clear trap waiting.

The Matchup

Southern Illinois visits Kansas City on Friday night at Swinney Center in Kansas City, on the Summit League Network, with Southern Illinois a 3.5-point road favorite and a total of 146.5. Road favorites in the first week are usually a warning sign. This one is earned.

Last season Southern Illinois finished 16-16, scoring 73.0 points a game and allowing 69.6. Kansas City finished 4-27, scoring 69.3 and allowing 83.9. With one game played each, last season still frames the longer view. Even so, a team that allowed 83.9 points a game last season has to show something new before it stops being the story of its own games.

The openers fit the profiles. Southern Illinois beat Maryville (MO) 82-40, hitting 16 three-pointers with 24 assists and 9 turnovers. Kansas City lost 76-61 at Creighton, a respectable building to visit, but undid itself with 22 turnovers. The Salukis take care of the ball and shoot it. The Roos give the ball away. That is the whole ballgame in one sentence, and Friday asks whether a home crowd changes it.

Key Factors

Southern Illinois' shooting is the argument. Jalen Haynes scored 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting against Maryville, going 4-of-6 from three with 7 assists. Luke Walsh added 14 points with 4 three-pointers of his own, and Luke Susko scored 13 with 6 rebounds. The Salukis made 16-of-39 from deep as a team and assisted on 24 of their 30 made shots. Against a defense that allowed 83.9 points a game last season, an offense that moves the ball this willingly finds open shooters all night.

Kansas City's ball security is the hole the favorite attacks. The Roos committed 22 turnovers at Creighton, and their best player was the biggest culprit: Jaylen Smith scored 15 points on 6-of-14 shooting but turned it over 7 times. Kansas City actually shot 48 percent in that loss, which tells you the offense works when it finishes the possession. It finished far too few of them. A road favorite does not have to dominate a team like that. It has to stay patient, let the mistakes accumulate, and cash them in.

The counterpoint is the setting. This is Kansas City's home opener, Smith is a real scorer, and Sebastian Hartmann gave the Roos 8 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists at Creighton, so the support exists if the turnovers come down.

Southern Illinois also built its shooting line against a lower-division opponent, and Saluki shooting on the road is a different test. If Kansas City plays a clean first half, the crowd gets involved and a 3.5-point road favorite gets squeezed late. The bet is that 22 turnovers is a habit, not an accident, and habits do not get fixed in four days.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.