Stony Brook Seawolves vs Northwestern Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Stony Brook won its opener by 50 and rebounded everything in sight. Northwestern won its opener by 26 behind a hot-shooting backcourt. Something has to give in Evanston.

The Matchup

Stony Brook visits Northwestern on Friday night at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston, on B1G+, with Northwestern a 14.5-point favorite and a total of 144.5. Both teams are 1-0, and both won their openers by wide margins against very different levels of resistance.

Last season Stony Brook finished 17-15, scoring 71.7 points a game and allowing 71.2. Northwestern finished 15-19, scoring 73.1 and allowing 72.0. One game in, last season still frames the longer view for both sides. The profile that matters is the similarity: two near-even teams last season, one of them now laying more than two touchdowns at home because of the conference on its jersey.

The openers were routs with fine print. Stony Brook beat SUNY Old Westbury 97-47, a lower-division opponent, but did it by outrebounding the Panthers 53-27 with 22 assists. Northwestern beat Binghamton 86-60, a real Division I win built on 56 percent shooting and 12 three-pointers. Both teams arrive confident. Only one of them is being asked to win by 15.

Key Factors

Stony Brook's frontcourt work is the cover mechanism. Bryan Ndjonga scored 18 points with 7 rebounds and 3 three-pointers against Old Westbury, and Leonardo Van Elswyk scored 17 points on 8-of-9 shooting in just 13 minutes. Morris Ugusuk added 11 points with 3 assists and 2 steals.

A visiting team that dominates the glass the way the Seawolves just did shortens the favorite's runs, because second chances are where home blowouts are built. Take those away and Northwestern has to win this in the half court, possession by possession.

Northwestern's case rests on an offense that was ordinary last season, when the Wildcats scored 73.1 points a game for a losing team. The opener was much better, but it leaned on unsustainable shooting: Jack Karasinski scored 24 points while going 7-of-11 from three, and Jake West added 20 points with 12 assists. If Karasinski shoots even a good version of that game rather than a spectacular one, the Wildcats' path to a 15-point margin narrows fast, because Stony Brook defends the glass well enough to prevent the putback points that rescue cold shooting nights.

The counterpoint is that Northwestern's guards might simply be this good. West controlled the Binghamton game start to finish, LA Pratt scored 19 points, and Angelo Ciaravino added 13 points with 10 rebounds, so the Wildcats score from everywhere when they are rolling.

Welsh-Ryan is small and loud, and a Coastal Athletic visitor playing its first road game can get sped up there. The bet is that Stony Brook's rebounding and balance keep this a game long enough that 14.5 points is too many to give a confident, physical underdog.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.