Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Tampa Bay scores 3.71 goals per game and Columbus scores 2.44, and that gap follows both teams into Nationwide Arena on Thursday. The Blue Jackets have been a different team at home, and Thursday asks whether the building can close a gap that wide.

The Matchup

Tampa Bay is 11-4-2, scoring 3.71 goals per game and allowing 3.06, a +0.65 differential from a team that has been perfect at home and uneven on the road, going 3-4-2 away from its own building. The Lightning attack runs through Nikita Kucherov, who has 22 points on 17 assists, and Jake Guentzel, who has 10 goals, and that pairing creates the same problems in every building: Kucherov holds the puck until the coverage breaks, and Guentzel is already where the break happens.

Columbus is 7-9-0, scoring 2.44 per game and allowing 3.19 for a -0.75 differential, and the Blue Jackets are two different teams by building: 6-4-0 at Nationwide Arena and 1-5-0 on the road. Kent Johnson leads Columbus with 8 goals and 16 points, and Zach Werenski has 12 assists from the blue line.

Columbus defends its home ice with energy and structure, and the 7-2 win over Colorado in this building last week is the proof of concept. The season-long scoring still says the Blue Jackets need that version of themselves to show up whole.

Key Factors

The scoring gap is the game. Tampa Bay scores 3.71 a night and Columbus scores 2.44, and a gap of more than a goal a game does not close on effort alone: the Blue Jackets have to defend their best game of the season and get finishing their season says they do not have. Special teams lean the same way, narrowly: Tampa Bay converts 19.4 percent on the power play against a Columbus kill of 73.9 percent, and Columbus converts 17.1 percent against a Tampa Bay kill of 72.9 percent, so neither kill gives its team shelter and the better attack gets more from the exchange.

In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy is at a 2.85 goals-against average and a .883 save percentage in 13 games for Tampa Bay, with Dennis Hildeby at 2.95 and .880 in four in the Lightning listing. Columbus lists Jet Greaves at 3.36 and .880 in nine games and Cam Talbot at 2.51 and .909 in nine, and Talbot's numbers are the Blue Jackets' best crease argument if he carries the start.

Tampa Bay is missing a major piece: Brayden Point is out tonight. He is on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury. Columbus lists no injuries for this game, the cleanest report on the Thursday slate, and a healthy home team is part of why this price is as short as it is.

The Columbus case is the building, the 6-4-0 home mark, Talbot's form, and Point's absence taking a scorer out of the Lightning lineup. It fails on the finishing: Columbus scores the second-fewest goals on the slate, and even a strong defensive night leaves the Blue Jackets needing goals their season has not produced against a team that creates through Kucherov on every other shift.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.