UAlbany Great Danes vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 21 Ole Miss has allowed 38 and 51 points in its first two games, and UAlbany arrives in Oxford 3-0 after winning three tight games. The Rebels are favored by 30.5, and the Great Danes' ball security is the whole story.

The Matchup

Ole Miss is 2-0, and the defense has done the talking. The Rebels beat Alcorn State 80-38 and North Alabama 72-51 at the Sandy and John Black Pavilion, allowing 44.5 points per game while scoring 76.0. Jaida Civil has led them both nights, scoring 17 points against Alcorn State and 15 against North Alabama, and Jada Richard added 14 points in the opener and 17 in the second game. Civil and Richard carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

UAlbany is 3-0, and none of it has been easy. The Great Danes won 65-61 at Northeastern, 62-61 against Manhattan and 77-57 at Mount St. Mary's, scoring 68.0 points per game and allowing 59.7 in games that stayed close into the final minutes. Alexia Bujold has scored 19, 13 and 17 points, and Noa López Tallón made all 6 of her three-pointers for 19 points off the bench at Northeastern. Madison Roman grabbed 16 rebounds against Manhattan. Bujold, López Tallón and Roman carry no injury designations for Wednesday.

Three games in, last season still frames both teams, and it frames them differently than the first week does. UAlbany went 14-16 last season, scoring 57.6 points per game and allowing 55.2, a team that lived in low-scoring games.

Ole Miss went 24-12, scoring 75.3 and allowing 62.2. The Great Danes are scoring more this season because Bujold has taken a bigger role and López Tallón gives them shooting off the bench that last season's team did not have. Whether that travels to an SEC arena is the question Wednesday answers.

Key Factors

This game is a ball-security test, and it is the whole bet. UAlbany turned the ball over 22 times against Manhattan and 30 times at Mount St. Mary's, and still won both games. Ole Miss forced 26 turnovers against Alcorn State and 30 against North Alabama. A team that gives the ball away against Mount St. Mary's pressure is walking into a louder version of the same problem in Oxford, and live-ball turnovers against the Rebels turn into layups before the defense can set.

What UAlbany has going for it is the glass and the clock. Roman's 16 rebounds against Manhattan were part of a 44-rebound night for the Great Danes, and North Alabama outrebounded Ole Miss 36-29 in the Rebels' second game. Extra possessions slow a game down, and a slow game is the underdog's friend when the total is 128.5: fewer possessions means fewer chances for Ole Miss to stretch a margin past 30. UAlbany's three games have all been played at the Great Danes' pace, not their opponents'.

The danger is obvious, and it is the first factor coming home. If UAlbany's guards crack the way they did in stretches at Mount St. Mary's, this is a 20-point game by halftime and the cover is an afterthought. Civil is also a matchup problem, a scorer who produces at every level. The pick rests on UAlbany's rebounding and pace keeping the possession count low enough that even a comfortable Ole Miss win lands in the 20s.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.