UCF vs Kansas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Kansas runs for 202 yards a game, and UCF just gave up 41 at Baylor, which is the short version of a three-point game in Lawrence. The Knights can score with anyone in the Big 12's middle class, as BYU learned. Their defense has stopped almost no one in a month, and the Jayhawks' ground game is the wrong matchup for it.

The Matchup

Kansas's ground game is the engine of this handicap. The Jayhawks run for 202.1 yards per game behind Dylan Edwards, who has rushed for 573 yards, and Isaiah Marshall has thrown for 1,506 yards with 11 touchdowns with Nik McMillan at 466 receiving yards. Kansas scores 29.1 points per game and, just as importantly, possesses the ball, which matters against a UCF defense allowing 25.2 points per game that spent last Saturday giving up 41 at Baylor.

UCF's offense is the counterargument and it is a good one. Keyone Jenkins has thrown for 1,181 yards with 11 touchdowns, Duke Watson has rushed for 597 yards, and Josh Derry leads the receivers at 428 yards for a team scoring 29.8 points per game that beat BYU 39-31 two weeks ago. The Knights can score in bunches. Their problem is that their defense cannot get off the field, and Kansas's defense, allowing 23.8 points per game, is the best unit in the game by a small but real margin.

Key Factors

Lawrence in November with a ground-and-pound home team is a specific kind of test, and UCF's recent road form is the worry for Knights backers: the 41-9 loss at Baylor was not just a defeat, it was a defense being physically handled for four quarters. Edwards against that front is the matchup Kansas will feed all afternoon. The honest counterpoint is UCF's ceiling.

The Knights' win over BYU showed an offense that can outscore its own defense's mistakes, Jenkins is playing his best football of the season, and Kansas has lost two of three with its own inconsistency, including a home loss to Kansas State. If UCF scores first and forces Marshall to throw, the Jayhawks' script gets uncomfortable. But Kansas's rushing volume at home, against this defense, is the most reliable force in the game, and a field goal is a small price for it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.