UL Monroe vs Troy Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Winless UL Monroe brings Aidan Armenta and his 974 passing yards to Troy, where Goose Crowder and the Trojans average 204.7 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry at home.

01The Matchup

Troy gets a winless UL Monroe team at home, and the Trojans' identity is a bad matchup for the Warhawks. Troy averages 402.7 total yards and 24.3 points per game, powered by 204.7 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry, while UL Monroe averages 342.5 yards and 20.0 points at 0-6.

Goose Crowder has thrown for 1,112 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions for Troy, and Gavin Griffin leads the rushing rotation with 359 yards on 76 carries. UL Monroe throws it more productively than it runs it: Aidan Armenta has 974 passing yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, but the Warhawks average only 120.5 rushing yards per game at 3.7 yards per carry, with Austin Carlisle leading the team at 230 yards.

02Key Factors

The Warhawks' problem is sustaining drives. They convert just 30.0% on third down against 36.5% for Troy, and their run game gives them no way to shorten the game or protect Armenta on the road. Troy also brings the better pass rush, with 11 sacks led by Donnie Smith and his 5, plus 9 takeaways and a plus-2 turnover margin against an even mark for UL Monroe.

Marcellus Jackson is the Warhawks' most reliable target with 32 catches for 265 yards, but Troy has the more explosive receiver in TK Keyes, who has turned just 13 catches into 282 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over four quarters, the team that runs at 5.1 yards per carry usually dictates how this kind of game ends.

03The Pick

Two touchdowns is a real ask for a Troy team averaging 24.3 points per game, and that is the honest case against laying the number. The case for it is stronger: UL Monroe is winless, converts 30.0% on third down, and cannot run the ball well enough to keep Troy's offense off the field.

The Trojans' rushing edge of 84.2 yards per game, 204.7 to 120.5, should compound across four quarters at home, and Crowder's 9-to-4 touchdown-to-interception line is clean enough to avoid handing the Warhawks the short fields they would need to stay close. Editorial pick: Troy -14.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.