UL Monroe Warhawks vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Texas A&M has scored 97 and 104 at home and now lays 36.5 against the team that went 4-28 last season. That record is real, and so is the problem with this spread: the Aggies have not been pushed after halftime yet, and UL Monroe has a guard scoring 21.5 a game.

The Matchup

UL Monroe visits Texas A&M on Monday night at Reed Arena in College Station, on SECN+, with Texas A&M a 36.5-point favorite, a total of 168.5, and no moneyline posted. Texas A&M is 2-0. UL Monroe is 1-1, and its recent history is the reason this spread exists.

Texas A&M beat Alabama State 97-66 and Northern Kentucky 104-67 at home. Jordan Pope leads the Aggies at 17.5 points a game, Jalen Reece is at 3.0 assists, and Jalen Shelley pulls down 9.0 rebounds a game. UL Monroe lost 83-78 to Central Michigan at home, then beat Champion Christian 99-55. Dayjaun Anderson leads the Warhawks at 21.5 points a game, Mike White is at 4.0 assists, and Ziyade Ndancky adds 7.5 rebounds a game.

Last season UL Monroe went 4-28, scoring 72.4 points a game and allowing 83.9, and there is no honest way to dress that up. Texas A&M went 21-11, scoring 87.7 and allowing 79.6. The gap between these programs is real and it is large. The question is only its size on one night, and here the schedule cuts both ways: the Aggies' two routs came at home against visitors a level down, and UL Monroe's one game against a comparable opponent, Central Michigan, was a 5-point loss, not a collapse.

Key Factors

A 36.5-point spread is a bet on the favorite's effort after halftime as much as its talent. Texas A&M has won by 31 and 37 this season, so the number is not fantasy, but both of those games were decided early, and the Aggies have not yet had to decide how hard to press a beaten team with a full bench rotation. UL Monroe does not need to be good to cover this. It needs to be ordinary for stretches, and Anderson, at 21.5 points a game, is the kind of guard who keeps scoring when a game is already lost.

The total of 168.5 describes a fast, loose game, and that environment produces variance in both directions. Texas A&M scored 87.7 a game last season and allows its opponents to play, giving up 79.6. A Warhawks team that gets to run will give up plenty, and it will also score enough to matter against a spread this size.

The honest counterpoint is UL Monroe's defense, or the lack of one. The Warhawks allowed 83.9 points a game last season and 83 to Central Michigan this season, and Texas A&M's offense is several levels above Central Michigan's. If the Aggies decide to keep their starters in and keep running, this can pass 36.5 and keep going. The read is that spreads this large lose more often to indifference than to the underdog, and Texas A&M has shown no reason yet to play a full 40 minutes against a team it has already buried.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.