Western Michigan vs Toledo Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Toledo averages 458.4 yards and 36.3 points per game behind John Alan Richter and his 1,853 passing yards, but Western Michigan has given the ball away only 3 times in 7 games behind Broc Lowry.

01The Matchup

Both teams arrive at 5-2, but they get there with very different offensive weight. Toledo averages 458.4 yards and 36.3 points per game, throwing for 273.4 yards and running for 185.0 at 5.1 yards per carry.

John Alan Richter has thrown for 1,853 yards with 14 touchdowns and 1 interception on 144 of 218 passing, CJ Miller leads the ground game with 426 yards and 6 touchdowns, and Adjatay Dabbs has 468 receiving yards and 5 scores. Western Michigan averages 322.3 yards and 25.0 points per game behind Broc Lowry, who has 1,044 passing yards with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Jalen Buckley, who has rushed for 542 yards and 7 touchdowns on 102 carries.

02Key Factors

Western Michigan owns the cleanest ball-security profile in this matchup: 3 giveaways in 7 games and a plus-5 turnover margin, with just 1 interception thrown as a team. Toledo has given it away 8 times for an even margin, so the Broncos will not beat themselves. What Toledo brings is pressure and explosiveness.

The Rockets have 21 sacks, led by Andrew Zock with 7, and they average 8.5 yards per pass attempt against 7.1 for Western Michigan. The Broncos convert slightly better on third down, 44.8% to 42.7%, and Buckley keeps them on schedule, but Aveion Chenault leads the team with only 326 receiving yards, so the downfield threat is limited when Lowry has to throw.

03The Pick

The Broncos are live in this game because they protect the ball and run it well enough to control stretches of clock. The problem is arithmetic: Toledo scores 11.3 more points per game, gains 136.1 more yards per game, and gets this one at the Glass Bowl with the stronger pass rush. A field-goal line asks Toledo to simply be the better team at home, and on yardage, scoring, and yards per attempt the Rockets have been that team all season. Editorial pick: Toledo -3.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.