Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Winnipeg Jets (4-2-2) visits St. Louis Blues (3-4-1) on Tuesday. Our data-driven pick: St. Louis Blues ML.

01The Matchup

This is the closest game on the Tuesday board by the only measure this model leads with: Winnipeg's differential is -0.12 per game (2.88 for, 3.00 against) and St. Louis's is also -0.12 (3.38 for, 3.50 against). The identical margins arrive by opposite routes. The Jets play lower-event hockey and have the better record at 4-2-2, including 2-0-1 on the road.

The Blues score half a goal more per game and concede half a goal more, sitting at 3-4-1 with a home mark of just 1-0-1 in a small sample. Winnipeg's power play is the best single unit in the game at 30.0 percent. St. Louis's counter is balance: more scoring at even strength and the better penalty kill of the two. When the headline numbers are literally tied, the honest preview says so and looks for the smaller edges underneath.

02Key Factors

First, Winnipeg's 30.0 percent power play against an 84.0 percent St. Louis kill is the visitors' clearest weapon, and it is a strong one: nearly one conversion in three. Second, the reverse matchup tilts home: St. Louis converts 19.0 percent against a Winnipeg kill at 78.9 percent, and the Blues score 3.38 per game at all strengths against the Jets' 2.88, so the home team has more even-strength routes to goals.

Third, faceoffs favor St. Louis narrowly, 48.1 percent against 45.9 percent, and in a tied-differential game at home, small possession edges and the last change are the standard tiebreakers. The counterweight is Winnipeg's road form: 2-0-1 away is the best road split in this game, and the Jets have not needed home ice to collect points.

03The Pick

St. Louis Blues moneyline at -148, filed as the slimmest lean on the board. The differential gap is exactly 0.00, and this model's tiebreak goes to the home team, which is the whole of the logic and it is stated that plainly. The supporting details: St. Louis scores more (3.38 against 2.88 per game), kills penalties better (84.0 against 78.9 percent), and wins slightly more faceoffs (48.1 to 45.9).

Winnipeg's 30.0 percent power play and its 2-0-1 road record are strong enough counters that a Jets win would surprise nobody, and the -148 price is not generous for a coin-flip profile. In a true pick-em on the numbers, take the home team and keep the stake honest. Blues ML.

Interested in more NHL picks? Read our thoughts on who covers in Carolina Hurricanes vs Vancouver Canucks.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.