Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2
Tarleton State hosts Alcorn State at the EECU Center, and the winless Braves have allowed 95.7 points per game through three games.
The Matchup
Alcorn State's first three games have been rough in a way that shows up on both ends. The Braves are 0-3, scoring 66.0 points per game and allowing 95.7, after a 9-23 season in which they scored 66.9 and allowed 80.2. Tarleton State is 2-1 at home in Stephenville, scoring 84.0 points per game and allowing 71.0 this season, after a 14-18 season in which the Texans scored 74.5 and allowed 73.4.
These rates blend three games from this season with last season, and Alcorn's profile stays bleak either way: the Braves do not score enough to punish a defense and do not defend enough to survive a good one. Leroy Kelly IV leads Tarleton State at 16.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, a two-way workload few players on this board carry, and Franck Emmou adds 3.7 assists per game.
Alcorn State leans on Calvin Sirmans III at 9.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, with Adam Tokpah at 5.3 rebounds per game. Kelly, Emmou, Sirmans, and Tokpah all carry no injury designations into this game.
The counterpoint is that Tarleton State is no powerhouse. The Texans were a losing team last season, and laying double digits with a modest offense always carries the risk of a flat half that lets a bad team hang around.
Key Factors
The first factor is Alcorn State's defense, because 95.7 points allowed per game means Tarleton State's offense does not need a special night. The Texans score 84.0 per game against ordinary competition, and the Braves have made ordinary offenses look explosive.
The second factor is Kelly IV, who gives Tarleton State both its scoring lead and its rebounding lead. Against a frontcourt whose best rebounder pulls 5.3 per game, his 9.3 rebounds per game turn into extra possessions and putbacks that stretch a lead steadily.
The third factor is Alcorn State's scoring floor. At 66.0 points per game, the Braves cannot answer runs, and a team that cannot answer runs on the road eventually watches a workable margin become a comfortable one.
Alcorn State has given up points to everyone and does not score enough to answer, and Tarleton State has the best player on the floor doing double duty as scorer and rebounder. This is a favorite worth laying. Take Tarleton State Texans -13.5 at -118.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/13) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | EECU Center, Stephenville |
| Spread | Tarleton State Texans -13.5 |
| Total | 152.5 |
| Moneyline | Tarleton State Texans -1,800 |
More Picks This Week
More on Alcorn State Braves and Tarleton State Texans
NCAAM Props and Futures Boards
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.