Alcorn State Braves vs Murray State Racers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Murray State has opened with two wins by 30 and 22 points, and Alcorn State has opened by giving up 99 and 94. Some big spreads ask a favorite to do something it has not done yet. This one asks the Racers to do roughly what they have done in both games so far.

The Matchup

Alcorn State visits Murray State on Tuesday evening at the CFSB Center in Murray, on ESPN+, with Murray State a 26.5-point favorite, a total of 164.5, and the Racers priced at -8,000 on the moneyline against Alcorn State at +2,200.

Murray State is 2-0, and neither game was close. The Racers won 94-64 at Tennessee State and beat Northwestern State 93-71 at home. They have scored 93.5 points a game this season and allowed 67.5. Brayden Shorter leads Murray State at 21.0 points a game while shooting 60.0 percent from the field, Christian Jones leads the Racers at 4.5 assists a game, and Brigham Rogers leads them at 6.5 rebounds a game.

Alcorn State is 0-2. The Braves lost 99-58 at Ole Miss and 94-83 at home to Howard, scoring 70.5 points a game and allowing 96.5. Adam Tokpah leads Alcorn State at 5.0 rebounds a game, and the Braves' problem is not one player, it is a defense that has yet to slow anybody down.

Last season Murray State went 20-13, scored 83.1 points a game and allowed 80.3, a winning Missouri Valley program with a real offense. Alcorn State went 9-23, scored 66.9 and allowed 80.2. The full-season gap between these programs was already wide before this November, and the first week of this season, Murray State winning big while Alcorn State concedes in the nineties, has only stretched it.

Key Factors

Alcorn State's defense is where this spread gets covered. A team allowing 96.5 points a game, beaten by 41 at Ole Miss and giving up 94 at home to Howard, has to show something entirely new to keep a game like this within four possessions a half. Murray State does not need a trick to score on the Braves, it just needs to play its normal game for longer than Alcorn State can keep up.

Shorter's efficiency makes the Racers hard to stall out. Scoring 21.0 a game on 60.0 percent shooting means Murray State's best option rarely wastes a possession, and with Jones distributing at 4.5 assists a game, the scoring does not depend on one hot hand. In a game with a total of 164.5, the possessions pile up, and a favorite with efficient, shared scoring turns extra possessions into extra margin.

The counterpoint is the size of the number itself. Laying 26.5 means the Racers have to stay interested deep into the second half, and a team up thirty often trades defense for the final whistle. Alcorn State did score 83 against Howard, so the Braves can put together runs against a relaxed defense. If Murray State's bench minutes get sloppy, the back door is wide open, and everyone laying points in games like this knows it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.