Anaheim Ducks vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Anaheim Ducks (4-6-0) visits Philadelphia Flyers (3-6-3) on Saturday. Our data-driven pick: Anaheim Ducks ML.

01The Matchup

Start with the number that explains Philadelphia's 3-6-3 record: the Flyers score 1.67 goals per game, the lowest rate in the league, and allow 3.00 for a -1.33 differential. Anaheim is no powerhouse at 4-6-0, scoring 2.70 and allowing 3.30 for a -0.60 differential, but that is still 0.73 goals per game better than the home team, and the Ducks have actually traveled fine, going 3-3-0 on the road while Philadelphia is 2-2-2 at home.

The strangest split in the game is territorial: Philadelphia allows 31.9 shots per game, among the worst marks in the league, yet Anaheim generates only 23.3 shots and allows just 26.7, so the Ducks' path here is not volume. It is that a team scoring 1.67 per game has to outfinish somebody, and so far the Flyers have outfinished almost nobody.

02Key Factors

First, the power play gap is the widest scoring lever on the ice: Anaheim converts at 21.9 percent, Philadelphia at just 13.9 percent, and while the Flyers kill penalties well at 83.3 percent against Anaheim's 77.1 percent kill, a low-event game between two weak offenses is usually decided by the one man-advantage goal, and the Ducks own the better unit by eight full points. Second, Philadelphia's one real edge is the faceoff dot, 50.9 percent against Anaheim's 43.7 percent, the worst mark in this matchup by a distance; the Flyers will start shifts with the puck, which matters for a team that cannot afford to chase. Third, shots against cut against the home team where it hurts: Philadelphia's 31.9 shots allowed per game means Anaheim's modest 23.3-shot attack should still find more clean looks than usual, against a Flyers offense that has not punished anyone for defensive mistakes.

03The Pick

Anaheim Ducks moneyline at +102. The differential gap is -0.73, moneyline territory rather than puck line territory, and the case is comparative rather than enthusiastic: Anaheim is the less broken team, with a +0.73 per-game differential edge, a 3-3-0 road record that matches Philadelphia's 2-2-2 home mark, and the only functioning power play in the game at 21.9 percent against 13.9 percent.

The risks are plain. Anaheim allows 3.30 goals per game, wins just 43.7 percent of faceoffs, and kills only 77.1 percent of penalties, so a Flyers team that starts with the puck and defends its own net well shorthanded can absolutely win an ugly 2-1 game at home. But a team scoring 1.67 goals per game should not be favored over anyone, and at plus money the Ducks are the side. Anaheim ML.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.