Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 12 Arkansas opens the season at home against Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the first meeting between the two schools. The Razorbacks went 28-9 last season and start the year ranked 12th in the country, while the Golden Lions arrive as the 11th pick in the SWAC preseason poll, facing one of the hardest road dates on their schedule.

The Matchup

Arkansas is a 40.5-point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville on Tuesday night, with a total of 161.5, on SECN+. It is the season opener for both teams and the first meeting ever between the two schools in men's basketball. Arkansas finished 28-9 last season, scoring 90.2 points per game and allowing 81.0. Arkansas-Pine Bluff finished 13-19, scoring 77.3 and allowing 81.0. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Arkansas remade itself again around Billy Richmond III, the holdover wing who averaged 11.2 points and 4.3 rebounds last season and made the SEC All-Defensive team. Richmond scored 17 points in each of the Razorbacks' two exhibition wins, over Gonzaga and Memphis, and shot 5 of 7 from three across those games.

Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson averaged 17.4 points last season and made 79 three-pointers, and freshman Jordan Smith Jr. takes over at point guard after choosing Arkansas over Duke. The size is real, too. Arkansas has five players at 6-foot-11 or taller, and freshman Miikka Muurinen grabbed 12 rebounds against Memphis in the exhibitions.

Pine Bluff's hope starts with a guard who is coming home. Jalen Tatum, a Pine Bluff native, transferred in from Jackson State, where he had 18 points, 4 assists and 4 steals in a SWAC tournament win over Grambling last March, and he was named to the preseason All-SWAC second team. Tatum averaged 7.7 points in 11 games at Jackson State last season and shot 41.7 percent from three in that role.

Around him, coach Solomon Bozeman talked up his group's size and athleticism, and 6-foot-9 senior Miles Williams averaged 6.7 points and 4.1 rebounds at Dillard last season. The Golden Lions were picked 11th in the 12-team SWAC, which tells you what the league expects. The question in this game is narrower than who wins. It is how long Pine Bluff can keep Arkansas from turning a big lead into a runaway.

Key Factors

Free throws are the underdog's friend in a game like this, and Pine Bluff lived at the line last season. The Golden Lions made 16.3 free throws a game and shot 75.5 percent as a team, numbers that keep adding points while the clock is stopped. Arkansas games invite that kind of scoring.

The Razorbacks scored 90.2 a game last season but allowed 81.0, the same number Pine Bluff allowed, and a total of 161.5 expects both teams to keep scoring deep into the second half. A favorite that defends like that gives a big underdog a lot of doors back into the number.

Arkansas also spreads its minutes around in a way that helps a late cover. Nine Razorbacks averaged at least 17 minutes in the two exhibitions, and a young team with a new point guard is still sorting out its combinations. John Calipari said it plainly this week: his team is really young, and he does not know yet what it will be.

Add the schedule spot. Arkansas flies to Washington, D.C. on Sunday to play No. 9 Virginia, a game that matters far more than the last ten minutes of this one. None of that stops Arkansas from winning comfortably. It does make a win by 41 or more a lot to ask.

The honest counterpoint is the building and the glass. Arkansas has won 52 straight home openers and has never lost a home opener in this arena, going 33-0 in those games at Bud Walton. Pine Bluff was outrebounded last season, 36.2 to 33.6 a game, and Arkansas's size can turn one missed shot into three possessions until the margin runs away from a road team.

Pine Bluff also gave the ball away 13.4 times a game, and Richmond leads a defense that feeds on exactly that. If Arkansas's pressure breaks Pine Bluff's guards early, this pick is in trouble by halftime. The cover case is that Pine Bluff's free throws, Tatum's ball handling, and Arkansas's deep rotation keep the last stretch of the game competitive enough.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.