Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Duquesne Dukes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Duquesne lays 10.5 at home in the most even matchup on the board. Purdue Fort Wayne forced 8.5 steals a game last season, and Duquesne was one of the loosest teams in the Atlantic 10 with the ball.

The Matchup

Duquesne is a 10.5-point favorite over Purdue Fort Wayne at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse in Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, with a total of 152.5, on ESPN+. It is the season opener for both teams. Duquesne finished 18-15 last season, scoring 78.3 points per game and allowing 75.2. Purdue Fort Wayne finished 17-15, scoring 78.1 and allowing 77.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Purdue Fort Wayne's best player is DeAndre Craig Jr., who averaged 14.0 points last season and shot 38.5 percent from three. Anthony Isaac Jr. averaged 7.2 rebounds, and the Mastodons defend with their hands, forcing 8.5 steals a game. That pressure is the personality of this team. It travels, because it does not depend on making shots, and it bothers opponents who treat the ball casually.

Duquesne treats the ball casually. The Dukes committed 12.5 turnovers a game last season, and their best player, Tarence Guinyard, is also their primary handler after averaging 16.6 points and 4.7 assists. Guinyard is good enough to beat pressure by himself. The question is whether Duquesne's other guards hold up when Purdue Fort Wayne runs fresh defenders at them for a full game.

Key Factors

The turnover battle decides this spread. Purdue Fort Wayne's 8.5 steals a game against Duquesne's 12.5 turnovers is the cleanest mechanism on this slate: extra possessions for the underdog, in a game where the two teams scored almost identically last season. If the Mastodons win that battle outright, they can win the game outright.

Duquesne's counter is the foul line. The Dukes attempted 22.2 free throws a game last season, and Purdue Fort Wayne's pressure comes with contact. If the whistles go Duquesne's way early, the Mastodons have to soften the pressure that makes them dangerous, and Guinyard starts seeing a settled defense he can pick apart.

The honest worry is size. Purdue Fort Wayne rebounded just 30.3 a game last season, the weakest mark in this matchup, and Duquesne's frontcourt will get second chances. A road underdog that gives up putbacks has to be nearly perfect elsewhere. The pick rests on the pressure being worth more than the glass costs.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.