Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 19 Texas Tech won its opener by 34 points and still shot poorly from three and the line doing it. Bethune-Cookman brings a lead scorer who just put up 22 efficient points. Defense travels for the favorite. So does doubt about its margin.

The Matchup

Bethune-Cookman visits No. 19 Texas Tech on Thursday night at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, with Texas Tech a 26.5-point favorite, a total of 150.5, on ESPN+. The Red Raiders are the ranked team, the home team, and the defensive team in this matchup. The only real question the spread asks is about their offense.

Texas Tech finished 23-11 last season, scoring 80.3 points a game and allowing 73.1. Bethune-Cookman finished 17-15, scoring 75.4 and allowing 76.9, a winning team from the Southwestern Athletic Conference that was used to being in games late. The openers reinforced the same split: Texas Tech strangles people, and the Wildcats can score.

Texas Tech beat Jackson State 76-42 on Monday, holding its opponent under 30 percent shooting. Bethune-Cookman lost 79-70 to Furman at home, a competitive game with 5 lead changes in which the Wildcats shot the ball well and simply got outfinished. A nine point loss to a solid opponent, with real shot making in it, is a different kind of 0-1 than a blowout, and it is the reason this underdog is interesting at a number this large.

Key Factors

Bethune-Cookman's cover case starts with one player in form and a team that protects the ball. Mari Jordan scored 22 points against Furman on 7-of-11 shooting, going 4-of-6 from three with no turnovers.

The Wildcats shot 43 percent as a team and 42 percent from three, scored 15 fast break points, and committed only 10 turnovers all night. That is the underdog recipe in a building like this: a lead scorer who can create his own shot, enough shooting around him to punish help defense, and few enough giveaways to deny the favorite easy transition points.

Texas Tech's offense is the crack in the favorite's case. Against Jackson State the Red Raiders shot 7-of-30 from three, a 23 percent night, and made only 61 percent of their free throws. Two starters barely scored at all: Donovan Atwell finished with 4 points on 0-of-8 shooting, and Darrion Williams scored 1 point.

Texas Tech won that game with defense and 29 points off turnovers, not with half court execution. Laying 26.5 with an offense that clunky means the cover depends on the defense forcing a collapse, possession after possession, for 40 minutes.

The counterpoint is that Texas Tech's defense just produced exactly that collapse. Jackson State turned it over 24 times, shot 29 percent, and scored 42 points, and Damarion Dennis scored 22 points off the Texas Tech bench on 4-of-8 shooting from three.

If the Red Raiders' pressure rattles Bethune-Cookman the same way, and Dennis or Cruz Davis, who had 15 points with 6 steals on Monday, heats up again, the margin can clear this number by the under eight timeout. The bet is that a Wildcats team which just handled the ball cleanly against Furman, and which has a genuine scorer in Jordan, keeps its possessions intact often enough to trade baskets and lose this game by a margin in the teens or low twenties.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.