Kansas Jayhawks vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 17 Kansas and No. 23 Kentucky close their night at the Champions Classic in Chicago, both 2-0 and both playing away from home for the first time. Kansas has won by 30 and by 44. Kentucky has already been pushed once, and that push is the most useful evidence either team owns.

The Matchup

Tuesday night at the United Center gives the Champions Classic its closing game: No. 17 Kansas against No. 23 Kentucky on ESPN, on a neutral floor in Chicago, with neither crowd in charge. Kansas is a Big 12 Conference team. Kentucky is a Southeastern Conference team.

Both are 2-0, and both have played only at home so far, which makes this the first honest road test either one takes. Kansas is favored by 5.5 points and priced at -278 on the moneyline, Kentucky is the underdog at +225, and the total is 155.5. Neither team has a player listed out or questionable, so both come in whole.

Kansas has the louder evidence. The Jayhawks beat Fordham 95-65 and Middle Tennessee 89-45, scoring 92.0 points a game and allowing 55.0, and the offense has come from everywhere. Tre White scored 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting against Fordham, and Tyran Stokes added 15 points and 7 rebounds in the same game.

Against Middle Tennessee the Jayhawks shot 63 percent as a team, scored 48 points in the paint, and got 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting from Trey Kaufman-Renn. It is a deep, long group that has overwhelmed two smaller teams at Allen Fieldhouse.

Kentucky's two wins tell a more useful story. The Wildcats are scoring 87.0 points a game and allowing 68.5, and they beat Manhattan 85-57 behind Milan Momcilovic, who scored 24 points and made 6 of his 9 threes, and Alex Wilkins, who had 11 points, 5 assists and 7 steals.

Then James Madison came to Rupp Arena on Friday and refused to go away, losing only 89-80 while its guard Brandon Lee scored 26 points. Wilkins and Zoom Diallo scored 16 apiece in that game, and Justin McBride added 13 points and 8 rebounds off the bench. Kentucky has already had to execute late in a game that was still live, and Kansas simply has not.

The fuller record is last season's, and it says these programs were close to peers. Kansas went 24-11, scoring 75.1 points a game and allowing 69.1.

Kentucky went 22-14, scoring 80.5 and allowing 74.3, the higher scoring and looser defensive team of the two. Read this season's Kansas defensive line with its schedule in mind: the 55.0 points a game the Jayhawks have allowed came against a Fordham team that shot 32 percent and a Middle Tennessee team that shot 25 percent, and neither of those offenses looks anything like the one Kentucky brings to Chicago.

Key Factors

Kansas has one flaw that has shown up in both of its wins, and it is the kind that matters most to a favorite asked to pull away late. The Jayhawks made only 53 percent of their free throws against Fordham and 55 percent against Middle Tennessee, and they gave the ball away 17 times against Fordham. Missed free throws and empty possessions are how a 5.5 point favorite stays stuck in a one possession game, and Kentucky has a guard who hunts exactly those mistakes: Wilkins collected 7 steals against Manhattan, and the Wildcats forced 13 turnovers in that game.

Kentucky's balance is the other thing Kansas has not faced. Five Wildcats scored in double figures against James Madison, and the scoring has moved from Momcilovic one night to Wilkins and Diallo the next, so Kansas cannot load up on one shooter and call it a plan.

Kentucky has also controlled its glass, collecting 40 rebounds in each of its two games, with center Malachi Moreno pulling down 10 against Manhattan and 7 more against James Madison. The combined scoring environment points the same way: these teams score 92.0 and 87.0 points a game, and a total of 155.5 promises enough possessions for the underdog's depth to keep it in contact.

The honest counterpoint is that Kansas may simply be the better team, and by enough that none of this matters. The Jayhawks blocked 6 shots against Fordham and 7 against Middle Tennessee, and if that length travels to a neutral floor, Kentucky's guards will spend the night finishing over size they have not seen.

Kentucky also allowed 80 points to James Madison at home, and a repeat of that defensive game against Kansas's paint scoring, 48 points inside against Middle Tennessee, would let the Jayhawks build the kind of lead that makes the points irrelevant. What beats this pick is Kansas shooting on a neutral floor the way it has at home.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.