Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

First meets second in Der Klassiker, level on points, and both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund arrive with their seasons bending around this night. Bayern score in floods at home. Dortmund simply do not concede. One of those truths breaks on Saturday.

The Matchup

Bayern lead Dortmund on goal difference, 17 points each, and the Allianz Arena has been a slaughterhouse this season. Bayern have won all three home games and scored 18 goals, putting six past Leipzig and seven past Union Berlin. Michael Olise has 6 goals this season and scored again in the 3-1 win at Freiburg on Sunday, when Dayot Upamecano and Serge Gnabry got the others. On paper this is the league's most frightening home attack.

Dortmund's answer is the best defense in the league. They have conceded 4 goals in seven games and kept clean sheets in four of their last five, beating Frankfurt 1-0 on Saturday through Maximilian Beier's goal off the bench. They have scored 12, though, and this attack travels carefully. Serhou Guirassy has 2 goals, Beier has 2, and nobody in yellow is scoring freely enough to win a shootout in Munich. Dortmund will come to frustrate, and they have the back three to do it for long stretches.

Key Factors

Bayern's team news is the story of the week. Luis Díaz is out after tearing a hamstring fibre against Arsenal, and he will miss at least a month. Jamal Musiala is also likely to miss out with a muscle fibre tear and has not returned to full team training. Alphonso Davies is out after an appendectomy.

Joshua Kimmich is a doubt after a family bereavement kept him out this week, though he is expected back in the squad if he feels ready, and Aleksandar Pavlovic and Kim Min-jae are doubts after training individually on Monday. Keep an eye on the Bayern team news before placing a bet.

Dortmund are healthier, though Konstantinos Karetsas is a doubt with a ligament injury, and Niko Kovac said this week that he is not yet ready to play. Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Harry Kane leading the line for Bayern in the 4-2-3-1 they used at Freiburg, with Gnabry and Olise wide, and Dortmund in the 3-4-2-1 they used against Frankfurt, with Guirassy up front.

The honest counterpoint is Bayern at home against anybody. This team put six past a good Leipzig side in this stadium, Olise is finishing everything right now, and if Bayern score in the first half hour the game state forces Dortmund out of their shell and into the kind of open game where a fourth goal arrives.

The under dies quickly if that happens. But Dortmund have turned every big game this season into a grind, Bayern are missing the two creators, Díaz and Musiala, who most stretch a set defense, and a Klassiker with first place on the line tends to be played not to lose for the first hour.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.