Bowling Green vs Buffalo Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Buffalo rides Messiah Burch and his 661 rushing yards at home, while Bowling Green counters with Jay Kastantin and his 1,201 passing yards plus a pass rush that already has 18 sacks.

01The Matchup

Buffalo hosts Bowling Green at 4-3 with the more reliable offense in a low-total game, averaging 323.5 total yards and 21.4 points per game against 280.1 yards and 18.0 points for the 2-5 Falcons. The Bulls are built on the ground: Messiah Burch has 661 yards on 118 carries, and Buffalo averages 164.9 rushing yards per game to just 105.7 for Bowling Green.

The Falcons throw it better, with Jay Kastantin at 1,201 yards, 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while completing 65.5% of his passes, compared with Jason Wright at 860 yards and a 50.7% completion rate for Buffalo. Chance Morrow is the finisher for the Bulls, with 37 catches for 441 yards and 6 touchdowns.

02Key Factors

Bowling Green's path to an upset runs through its pass rush, which has produced 18 sacks in 7 games, led by Myles Bradley with 7 of his own. That is a real problem for a Buffalo passing game that averages only 4.9 yards per attempt with 9 touchdowns against 4 interceptions as a team.

The counter is that Bowling Green cannot run the ball well enough to protect Kastantin for four quarters: Austyn Dendy leads the Falcons with 332 rushing yards, the team averages 3.2 yards per carry, and top receiver Jeremiah Scoby has 26 catches for 269 yards. Third down is a wash at 36.9% for Bowling Green and 36.8% for Buffalo, and the Bulls have a slight takeaway edge at 11 to 10, so the Falcons need their pass rush to be the difference.

03The Pick

This is a field-goal game on paper, and the tiebreakers sit with the home team. Buffalo runs the ball for 59.2 more yards per game, has the most productive player in the game in Burch at 661 rushing yards, and can lean on Morrow in the red zone against a defense that has to respect the run first.

Bowling Green will land punches with its pass rush, but an offense averaging 18.0 points per game with a 3.2-yard rushing average has to play nearly clean to win on the road, and the Falcons have already given the ball away 8 times this season. Editorial pick: Buffalo -3.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.